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Weather forecast game

At the start of Week 2, why not have another go at forecasting the weather in Reading – if it is still early in the week, you may like to come back to this on Thursday or Friday.

Your task is to try and predict 4 elements of the weather in Reading, U.K for Sunday 2 July 2017. We want you to predict the following:

• The minimum temperature (in degrees C) to the nearest one decimal place

• The maximum temperature (in degrees C) to the nearest one decimal place

• The relative humidity at 12:00 (GMT) to the nearest whole number (%)

• Total rainfall to the nearest decimal place (mm)

What is relative humidity? It is a measure of how much water vapour (gas) is in the air, with 0% indicating that the air is completely dry and 100% being the level at which cloud droplets will start forming (assuming there are cloud condensation nuclei present for the droplets to condense on to). Water condenses more easily in cold air than in warm air, so the actual amount (or absolute humidity) of water vapour in cold air with a relative humidity of, say, 70%, is less than the actual amount of water vapour in warmer air with a relative humidity of 70%.

In the UK, the relative humidity is usually over 50%. If it has been raining recently, you would expect it to be over 90%.

You can read more about humidity on the Met Office website.

Please enter your predictions for this weekend on the link provided, at the bottom of this Step. Make sure you submit your answers by 24:00 (GMT) on Friday 30 June.

Unfortunately, we have to set this as a cut-off point, to allow us to evaluate the forecasts. If you’ve missed the deadline for this week, you may wish to head to the current week of the course and submit your prediction for that week and then return to Step 2.3 to complete the course. Don’t forget to mark this Step as complete before you move on.


Please be aware that if you participate in the weather forecasting game:

• We will ask you to provide your FutureLearn user name so that we can record your score for you. You can choose to use an alternative username if you prefer (only identifiable to you).

• We will compile and share the results from the game, each week, to help you evaluate your weather prediction skills.

• The data we gather from the weather forecasting game will only be used for learner feedback within this course and will not be shared outside of this course.

• When we report the results from the game back to learners at the start of each week, we will provide a list of everyone’s score, in alphabetical order by username within a PDF document.

• Entering the game will automatically confirm that you have provided consent for us to list the user name you submitted when taking part in the game together with your score, within the reports shared within the course.

• Scores will not be ranked.

Enter your prediction on the Royal Meteorological Society website.


The results

After the weekend, you can return to this Step to find out how you did. You’ll be able to compare your results with our data, taken from the World Meteorological Organisation’s weather station at University of Reading.

We’ll be running this forecasting game at the start of each week of the course, so keep tabs of your predictions to see if you improve. Don’t forget you can share your thoughts in the discussion area below, and if you think one of your fellow learners has made a particular good suggestion/comment, let them know.


UPDATE Monday 03 July 2017

Firstly, a massive apology – we’re afraid the results generated and published last week were actually incorrect. So if you were disappointed with your result, don’t worry, most people did significantly better. The updated results have been put on the week 1 forecasting article and you can also see them here. There were in fact some very high scores - the maximum possible score is 16. We’re sorry, we should have noticed that they weren’t right before we uploaded them.

As for this week’s results, we invited you to predict the weather of Sunday 02 July.

Take a look at the Results Table and Sylvia’s Results Summary to find out how you got on in the Weather Forecasting Game in Week 2.

Did you score higher or lower than you expected? We look forward to hearing your thoughts in the discussion area below. And don’t forget, you’ll have another opportunity to see if you can improve on your score when we repeat the game again in Week 3.

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This article is from the free online course:

Come Rain or Shine: Understanding the Weather

University of Reading