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Skip to 0 minutes and 5 seconds You were asked to formulate an opinion about the kind of time arise the organization should consider when formulating their strategy, and also wonder whether this might differ from industry to industry. Well, if you think about it, the second part of the question Implies there is going to be a difference. There is no ideal predetermined time arise. We can think about is the fact that very often, and I suppose it’s human nature, really, people tend to have a fairly short-term disposition. Very rarely do we find that organizations think beyond the next five years. Governments, perhaps, even shorter time periods. Individuals, perhaps, even shorter. People often say to me as individuals, their time arise is the next paycheck.

Skip to 0 minutes and 55 seconds In the world of futurist thinking, we like to think beyond just five years. The problem with thinking only of five or three years into the future is we can to get caught up in the current, in the present, and simply extrapolate where we are and assume that it will be business as usual. It doesn’t allow us, that from a cognitive point of view, to expand our thinking– to use our creativity. So, if possible, we like to think beyond five years. In fact, many futurists will say that short-term is 10 years, medium-term is 20 years, and long-term is beyond 20 years. But one has to be realistic. It will depend on the kind of industry we’re looking at.

Skip to 1 minute and 39 seconds So, for instance, one would imagine that in the IT industry, long-term might be a year. Things happen so quickly there. Things change so quickly there that for them one year might be a very long period. Whereas in a mining sector, 50 years might be their long-term arise. So in some ways, it is contextual, what we mean by the time arising. But as a rule of thumb, we like to think beyond just the next couple of years. As I said a bit earlier, we like to allow ourselves to think beyond just the immediate, think beyond just extrapolating from current trends.

Organisations and Futures thinking

In your opinion, what is the time horizon that organisation’s should consider when formulating their strategy? Would this differ from industry to industry? Think about this, and then take a look at this video to learn more.

After you have watched the video, discuss the time horizon of your organisations strategy and whether you feel this is appropriate or not based on what you have just learned.

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This video is from the free online course:

Futurism and Business: Dealing with Complexity

University of Stellenbosch Business School Executive Development