The impact of shale revolution on geopolitics

Shale substantially enhanced US global economic competitiveness and US foreign policy leverage globally. US LNG exports could greatly benefit consumers worldwide would bolster the US “rebalance” to Asia.

Growing US oil production will diminish OPEC’s role in determining prices as a swing producer. The shift from the Persian Gulf to the Western Hemisphere as the hub of oil and gas production would reduce US imports from the Middle East, but rising US oil production does not alone justify a change in the US’s relationship with the Middle East.

The rise of emerging market demand for fossil fuels, especially in Asia, is arguably the more geopolitically significant energy development. Over the long-term, the greatest national security challenge posed by energy is climate change.

References:

• International Security Advisory Board, “Energy Geopolitics: Challenges and Opportunities,” July 2014.