Can EU reduce dependence on Russia?

There is limited scope for significantly reducing overall European dependence on Russian gas before the mid-2020s (Dickel et. al., p. 1).

European conventional gas production is expected to fall by 110 bcm/year (or by 40 percent) in the period 2013–2030. No significant unconventional (shale gas, tight gas, and coal bed methane) gas production is likely prior to 2020, and less than 20 bcm of production from those sources by 2030.

Countries in the Baltic region and southeastern Europe which are highly dependent on Russian gas, and hence extremely vulnerable to interruptions, could substantially reduce and even eliminate imports of Russian gas by the early 2020s, by a combination of LNG supplies and pipeline gas from Azerbaijan (Dickel et. al., p. 1).

The actual figures being very dependent on the three main producers – Norway, Netherlands, and the UK. No significant unconventional (shale gas, tight gas, and coal bed methane) gas production is likely prior to 2020, and less than 20 bcm of production from those sources by 2030.

The outlook for (renewable) bio gas is more optimistic with a possible increase from 14 bcm in 2012 to 28 bcm in 2020, and perhaps to 50 bcm in 2030, although problems of subsidy make the larger figures uncertain.