Simulating Vaccination
This video shows the Agent Based Model run with 50% of the agents vaccinated.
Without vaccination the epidemic spreads rapidly as illustrated in Figure 6.1(a) . There is a high peak with over half the agents infected.
After vaccination of 50% of the population the video of the simulation shows a much lower peak and many less agents being infected.
When the number of vaccinations is increased to 65% of the population the virus finds it difficult to get a hold, as illustrated in Figure 6.1(b). In practice most vaccination programmes aim for 80% or more of the population. [2]
Figure 6.1. (a) no vaccinations (6) (b) 65% vaccinations 
Addition 18th May 2020
A tracker, developed by the Vaccine Centre at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, follows COVID-19 vaccine candidates as they progress through the development pipeline. It is updated weekly. COVID-19 vaccine development pipeline With thanks to Robert Peek.
What do you think
Do you think this is a convincing demonstration that vaccination works? Do you think vaccinating up to 80% or more of the population is a good policy?
References
[1] London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, “COVID-19 vaccine development pipeline”, Viewed 18 May 2020.
https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_vaccine_landscape/
[2] Dr Manish Sadarangani, ‘Herd Immunity: How does it work?’, Oxford Vaccine Group, General Public Engagement. 26 April 2016. link
COVID-19: Pandemics, Modelling, and Policy
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