Backcasting the future

In the last step, you explored the concept of backcasting – starting from a vision of success and working backwards to identify the steps needed to achieve it.

Now, it’s time to put this into practice. Using your vision of a flourishing low-carbon future from step 4.4, this exercise will guide you to map out the stepping stones that lead to that future. How did that future come about? What steps, decisions, events or developments made it possible?

Backcasting exercise

To make this exercise easier to follow, you’ll break it into smaller pieces. As you follow the prompts below to construct your own roadmap, we encourage you to write it down as a timeline or list of milestones and events. You will need this roadmap for the activity in the next step.

1. Start from the future

Take a moment to revisit your vision of a better future from step 4.4. Imagine yourself in that world 10 years from now. What stands out most? Which aspects of your vision feel especially significant or transformative?

2. Imagine the pivotal moments where we changed course

Now, ask yourself what events, trends or breakthroughs were decisive for getting us off our current path and onto a path that led to this future? For example:

• a new binding climate law,
• a change in government,
• mass bankruptcies because insurance companies stop insuring against climate disasters,
• the nationalisation of fossil fuel companies,
• rapid behaviour change through social contagion,
• escalating pressure from social movements,
• a general strike,
• a revolution.

Write down two or three pivotal moments that define the transition into your desired future. 

3. Fill in the details 

Think about what might have happened before or in between those pivotal moments. Were there key societal shifts, political events or cultural changes? Identify the smaller steps or milestones that could have contributed to the bigger changes, or that led from one bigger change to another. Consider: 

• What smaller-scale actions or local initiatives might have laid the groundwork? 
• How did public attitudes or behaviours shift over time? 
• Were there influential leaders, organisations or communities that played a role? 

Add these stepping stones to your roadmap, working backwards from your vision. Remember, these steps should feel plausible, even if they’re ambitious. 

Feel free to adjust earlier stepping stones in your roadmap as you go. You might realise some of your earlier stepping stones need to be tweaked to fit with the ones you’ve added before or after. Equally, some additional stages may need to be added earlier or later, so adjust as required. 

4. Connect to the present 

Finally, think about the very first events that might have happened in the near future. These could be actions that are already underway or small changes that could realistically occur soon. For instance: 

• A grassroots movement gains momentum. 
• A city adopts a new sustainable transport plan. 
• An influential company shifts toward circular economy practices. 
• A billionaire donates all their money to climate movements. 

These stepping stones should bridge the gap between today and the larger milestones you’ve mapped out. 

Once you have completed your roadmap, make sure you have it handy as you will use it in the following step.