Frank Willsdon

FW

Recently retired and returned to the U.K. after an international career in petrochemicals and mining. Living with a partner here whilst family reside in Australia. Taking chance now to pursue learning

Location A small apartment in Putney about opposite E. Putney tube station.

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  • Once again a vast and daunting reading and reference list to finish. Have to admit impressively comprehensive.

    As this is the last step it must be time to give an opinion on this course.

    It could have been so good because it really touched on all the hot topics and conflict issues of our time and there are many! Some of the graphics and information...

  • I am afraid ploughing through all the theory and jargon in the text above is too much for me and at times very academic and detached from pragmatism. If it could just have been distilled down for us into the key arguments/points to make it accessible it would be so much better. It is written for academics and scholars not for ordinary people like me just...

  • Yes agreed, it does seem that there are more risks facing the world today than in the past. You can very quickly think of : climate change, nuclear arms proliferation, cyber warfare, mobile terrorism driven by extreme fundamentalism, overpopulation, mass migration, inequalities driven by globalisation seen by those who are the 'have-nots' and the list goes...

  • We agreed earlier - talking and summits etc are good. Keeping channels of communications open and leaders meeting F2F helps stop misunderstandings and mistakes. Yes, clearly disagreements will always exist but hopefully summits etc enable agree to disagree in peace!

    And Everett below raises a very good point- it's not just about saying what's on your own...

  • with apologies, I will just repeat my comment from 4.17......

    The world is long past a bilateral US-Russia agreement being enough because others have e.g. nuclear weapons now and furthermore other states keenly aspire to have them. Surely this must mean multilateral is the only logical way forward.

    However, we could say the 3 main protagonists (US,...

  • The UN Conference on Disarmament sure was (and still is) a daunting list.

    The world is long past a bilateral US-Russia agreement being enough because others have e.g. nuclear weapons now and furthermore other states keenly aspire to have them. Surely this must mean multilateral is the only logical way forward.

    However, we could say the 3 main...

  • I am with Haidar on this one. I think these multilateral summit meetings help towards a safer world. Keeping international communications open and leaders meeting F2F can help avoid misunderstandings and misinterpretations even if it doesn't bring about direct agreement.

    There can be an element of leaders wanting to look like global leaders for the...

  • We are surrounded by standards many of which we have no idea exist as the article explains well. All are well intentioned I believe although some do seem unnecessary as per the thinkers in the EU demonstrate from time to time.

    And yet there is always a need for more. For example we are now into our third mini viral pandemic (SARS, MERS now coronavirus). Two...

  • I found some of this a bit academic - the respective definitions and interactions between them.
    For me, through my Western lens, one big question is how do we enforce norms on states who through their actions clearly have no regard for them.
    Take Russia for example. On a whole number of issues they are not adhering at all to international norms of how a...

  • The stronger economically a rising power becomes, the larger voice it has and the more it will want to be, and will be heard at the table. This could well be enhanced by military power which is undesirable but I think is the way the world works.

  • Yes, agreed, China + is rising fast but the US and Europe will certainly not go quickly. The US dollar still looks all powerful. it is possible China might plateau at some time too.

    I don't really see the EU as a diplomatic giant. We often don't know what the EU position is on issues - which is not surprising since it consists of 27 different countries....

  • I think I agree with the Indonesian assessment. Already 16th largest economy, growing at 5% per year and with a young demographic population of 250+ million (42% under 25). Democratic, pretty stable and flying a bit under the radar. Promising.
    I am less sure about S. Africa with very slow growth rates, troubled politics and social unrest. Corruption has been...

  • The centre of global economic gravity is indeed moving East led by China and Japan of course but followed by India, S. Korea, Indonesia,Vietnam, Malaysia etc
    Brazil's growth has stagnated compared to the East and there is not a single African country in the top 20 GDP. Africa clearly lags behind.
    Yes, indeed,the more economically powerful a country becomes...

  • It is tempting to say the world is moving to a bipolar arrangement (US-China). And its behaviour suggests China would actually like to be a hegemony. But with the EU (economic power and some military e.g. France) and Russia (military power and surplus energy resources) I am concluding right now it is more a multipolar world.

  • I think the article is correct in this respect : if you can eliminate a target from outside a country's airspace (or very high altitude) , not exposing any of your own forces and be so accurate to really minimise civilian collateral damage ....then it must be very tempting to do so, i.e. risk of taking place rises. I would think the targeting of General...

  • The article starts with........'The major powers have stopped the conventional and unconventional arms race'. This is really not true. The major powers USA, China, Russia are strengthening what they have and others are looking to increase military capability too. For example Trump is pushing all NATO countries to spend 2% GDP on defence and he is having some...

  • Self defence, right of pursuit, responsibility to protect, all these can refer to the same issue - it just depends on which side you are sitting. When there are multi faction multi nuanced conflicts like the Middle East they all can be in play.
    There are a lot of high principled words re a 'just' war and behaviours during and after but the actual evidence...

  • Well as said earlier I think international military wars are morphing to proxy wars. The countries are actually at war through militias etc but on some one else's territory. There are Middle East examples.
    And in other non military variants...cyber wars, trade wars there may still be direct country to country conflict.

  • I think I agree with the article here in that civil wars today. are no longer constrained to involve only those in that country.
    Examples are 'proxy' wars of which a classic is Yemen where Iran is facing off against Saudi Arabia and the local population are caught in the crossfire.
    As for the U.K., it is much less 'powerful' than it used to be and is now...

  • The 10 conflicts article made very interesting reading even if it is a year out of date. Much of it sounds all too familiar so clearly ongoing. Nevertheless, it would be good to have the end 2019 version to read.

  • I think this article was about the most confusing yet!
    And including the statement that China is not a major power and aligning it with Ireland is absurd.
    We jumped from trade to power to Chinese investment in Africa to Muslim fuelled 'conflict of civilisations to female trafficking....ending in a bizarre conclusion. ??.

  • Hamish, I am with you, not for the first time on this course. This video rambled on and on and I was continuously frustrated not to be able to pick up a coherent thread of argument backed up by evidence leading to a reasoned conclusion. Also not for the first time.
    It has the potential to be so much better. Pity.

  • 1. Climate change : there is no doubt - this is a science dealing in facts.
    2. Epidemics : let's see how China goes with the coronavirus to see if they have learned from the previous SARS experience.
    3. RtP : great in principle and good to have it in the international arena but it is also open to abuse by some and clearly has been used thus. No easy solution...

  • Once again a remarkably comprehensive and equally daunting reference list!!

  • The opening comments........'We are witnessing a new, but not unfamiliar, surge of perils that we are now better equipped to cope with.'.

    I really don't agree with this. The clearest peril we face globally is climate change, we are not familiar with it (yet) and we are not better equipped to cope with it.

    Similarly, other global or transnational...

  • No. Warfare is still warfare local or remotely activated. It all promotes cycles of violence and revenge. The recent tit for tat exchange between US and Iran and its proxies is an example. Likewise the endless retaliations between Israel and Palestinians.

  • This is difficult territory. Whatever we think of Trump, he does have a point in asking what are we doing in all these foreign countries, fighting wars we cannot win, spending billions doing it and killing our own young armed forces personnel ( and many local civilians). ? I guess he is more able to say this given the now US energy independence.

    We, the...

  • You can't help being shocked by the list of these sort of weapons together. You wonder how did we do this to ourselves? It seems like we are sowing the seeds for real trouble one day.

    Independent of all the bans , conventions and inspections I ask myself how many of these weapons actually really do exist in the world? I bet it's a lot more than we like to...

  • The UK is depicted ( 1 of 6 countries) as having a planetary force projection capability. I think that's a bit of a stretch nowadays. Most commentators say we couldn't repeat the Falklands task force today. I would think the US, Russia and China (growing fast) are a long way ahead .

    I was really surprised to see so much arms exports coming from Germany. I...

  • @JulieDonovan That is astonishing. Clearly a gaping hole to be plugged!

  • @JulieDonovan Interesting observation Julie. I wonder is that because we are such an open society that needs really solid evidence before we apprehend anybody. How many times have we heard that offences were committed by persons who were 'known' or 'of interest' to the police or counter terrorism authorities.

  • Pretty much whichever way you look at the maps, Africa looks grim. And the West has piled aid into there for many years seemingly with little positive impact. It has so much potential (resources, fertile land)that it is frustrating to see. And now China is taking advantage of these 'fragile' states with their loan schemes. It is hard to see things improving...

  • That report is a real eye opener Hamish. We in the UK are certainly in the front line from that. If I take the number of arrests to be an indicator of underlying activity then France and Belgium are with us too.

  • Frank Willsdon made a comment

    It is true, developing countries need all the help and know how they can get in tackling infectious outbreaks. We were in Uganda last year at the time Ebola spread from neighbouring Congo. At the border crossing between Uganda and Rwanda UNHCR were present one way and WHO the other way. It was pretty rudimentary stuff, not what you would call 'Western'...

  • Julie, the impression I have is compared to the SARS outbreak some years ago, this time China is being much more open and faster off the mark in dealing with the Coronavirus. This is a good sign and gives countries the chance to prepare. For example there were special measure in place at London Heathrow last night meeting the incoming flight from Wuhan. I...

  • @JulieDonovan Thank you, interesting website. You always want to know more of course. Like what is the breakdown into skilled/non skilled leaving/arriving. Maybe that level of detail is not even available and too complicated with families, students etc.

  • Julie, you are right. Legal migration works, mass illegal is not being accepted and is generating an adverse reaction. And it certainly is complex and yes you do have to speak carefully about it. But permit me just one soundbite comment if I may.

    Interestingly (and surprisingly) the migrants I speak with here in London are starting to say themselves...

  • Yes, there are many factors behind the push to migrate. Here living in London you get the opportunity to talk with may who have come from all over the world to settle and are integrating - at least in the area I live - pretty well.
    To what has been mentioned already is personal safety - particularly those from the ME region.....they say they just don't have...

  • Frank Willsdon made a comment

    I don't pretend to understand how the internet and cyber based applications work, but protection of it is clearly vital. I would think that from our own domestic computer experience we know there are people out there trying to do harm to just anyone and it's hard to keep them at bay. I mean we hear today that even Jeff Bezos phone has been hacked. You would...

  • We may not like the thought of nuclear power, but until we develop a new source of large scale power (e.g. fusion) the absolute imperative to get our carbon footprint down means nuclear is here to stay for the foreseeable future. This is why there are more than 50 under construction and many of the existing 450+ are being upgraded or life extended. Waste we...

  • I'd hoped that with the US becoming energy independent through indigenous shale gas that it might serve to reduce ME tensions. But the ME region has so much seemingly endemic conflict ongoing that I think little effect at present.

    Nordstream 2 gas will make Germany and Russia increasingly interdependent. Germany has abandoned nuclear and will now phase out...

  • Forget confrontation, the only way we will tackle climate change is by global co-operation of governments. This looks far too daunting right now but finally- if we see this change coming as an existential threat (it might just be)- it may happen. International agencies can monitor, recommend, perhaps mediate etc but governments and leaders have to do...

  • Having operate a bauxite mine in remote Arnhem Land in Australia I can confirm that indeed the rules as laid out in this article are followed. As mining progresses the topsoil and flora are removed and kept separately and then replaced after the bauxite layer is removed. The land is returned to as it was but admittedly a couple of metres lower. The aboriginal...

  • @DavidCamroux My own view on this is that for such a major change in direction a simple majority is not enough. Likewise for the earlier Scottish referendum.

  • Frank Willsdon made a comment

    Deforestation is clearly one of the elements of climate change. From all the environmental courses I have done under Future learn I have concluded that to stay within the 2 deg c temp rise we not only have to do everything we can to reduce CO2 emissions but also have to do everything we can to consume CO2.
    At present we are losing ground fast on...

  • @MaryamR Thank you again for your views and thinking and taking the time. Appreciated. We could prolong this but probably to little eventual avail! I suggest we agree to differ as I feel large states will always be able to do things that multinationals or groups of them will never be able to do and you feel that multinationals are more powerful.

  • The UK is more vulnerable to freshwater stress than Australia? I know that was 2007 data/analysis, but hard to get my head around that one.

    Water just has to become an increasing risk for conflict. Just now we have quite a spat going on between Ethiopia and Egypt over damming the Nile. With the world population at around 7 billion I think, and forecast to...

  • Regrettably Putin's Russia seems oblivious of any need to adhere to 'normal' standards of state behaviour. Without trying, come to mind are :
    - Annexation of Crimea and military interference in Ukraine
    - shooting down a civilian airliner (MH 17) followed by constant denial
    - poisoning of Skripals in the UK
    - elimination of opposition politicians in...

  • ' ..the more obvious the risks become the more people deny it.' Really?

    With the evidence of climate change mounting steadily (recent Australia fires, ice sheets melting etc) I find that statement hard to believe. There may be pockets of denial but overall I think there's a growing acceptance that we really do have to do something.
    I agree that there does...

  • I agree that some large multinationals are globally more economically powerful than some entire smaller states, but more powerful than the big states....I am really not so sure about that Maryam.

  • Simon, you might be right but it wouldn't be limited to just Populist governments.

  • I found this a real scattergun of an article jumping through growth and development, fear of remote controlled technology, meat consumption, military capability, globalisation and migration, intervention forces. There is little coherent thread joining this together and then concluding that there worldwide government panic....really?? Surely Grenoble can do...

  • Simon, I think that is certainly in part correct, but would China really want NK to possess independent nuclear weapons? I doubt it.

  • You may be right Simon. Aus politics seem ruthless inside the parties. If the leader looks like he/she is having an adverse effect on election chances than they are replaced.

  • Hmm...my experience of living within and working with the Chinese community in Singapore differs somewhat. (Singapore is ca 70% ethnic Chinese), There was no way the Chinese workers in the organisation I worked with would report to an ethnic Malay Singaporean. And Indians were definitely regarded as a second class in the work place - not overtly but subtly....

  • What can I say? A staggeringly comprehensive list. I just have no idea where to start or even dip in. In fact to be honest it's feels just too daunting...!

  • @AllysonWalters Allyson you hit the nail on the head for me in that an 'inconvenient truth' driving climate change is overpopulation. There are lots of actions being talked about but I wonder if any of the COP meetings etc dared to go down that path. I don't actually know but I doubt it. It's a real hot potato and maybe in the end the most difficult nettle to...

  • Fully agree with you on this one Maryam. Prevention is better than cure any day. My long career told me n times over that if you leave a problem it very rarely gets better on its own - it usually gets worse and cost more++ to fix in the end. On the issues you have mentioned - we don't seem to be able to get ahead of the curve here in the UK.. It always seems...

  • There are once again some sweeping statements in here that just have to be responded to.
    1.There is every reason why we should put more effort into the preservation of biodiversity than linguistic diversity. Biodiversity is an integral part of the survival of the human race on this planet. Linguistic diversity is non critical.
    2. '....Adjusting whole...

  • Maryam, I was with you until you said '....I tend to believe that they do this (i.e the state ignoring crime) to keep us the ordinary people insecure and on our toes...'. That's quite a conspiracy theory in my view and one I cannot ascribe to. I honestly wonder how you ended up thinking like that?

  • There's no question that helps Julie. Germany needs the gas (even more so after today's coal shutdown announcement) and Russia needs income and hard currency for a faltering economy.

  • 1. It really depends where you stand on some issues. If you asked a Brexiteer whether he/she was criticizing the workings of a democratic regime they would tell you the exact opposite. They are criticising the workings of a non democratic regime (the EU Commission) and preserving the democratic rights of their nation state as they see it.
    2.'Populism requires...

  • Hong Kong democracy protesters (revolt?) are taking a huge personal risk with Chinese power very close at hand.
    Iranian protesters (revolt?) fuelled by economic hardship and the cover up of the plane shooting are also taking a huge personal risk with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard watching.
    Will they grow into more or be put down?
    Only time will tell.

  • James, yes quite...

  • Thanks Hamish. Times may be a changing!

  • As per norm there are some pretty sweeping statements in this text, but setting those aside.
    Basist parties (as the article described) may be frowned upon by the likes of this educational establishment but they have been democratically supported and in some case elected to be in power or share power. They are therefore actually legitimate.
    The inequalities...

  • I take from this that a revolt has the best chance of being successful if :
    - the government of the day is weak and by its acts (crimes against the people?) has reduced its legitimacy
    - the revolt has a strong and streetwise leader (Lech Walesa like)
    - that the regime does not intervene conclusively early on with the army (internal or external)..
    Iran...

  • In closed countries, like N Korea, the people know little else than the life around them. They are kept that way by the regime and because they know no better - then that is just life as they know it leading to acceptance, But elsewhere the internet+ is enabling all to see what life could be possible and exists elsewhere. For somewhat closed countries this...

  • Agreed Hamish. You have put it well. It often does not come across as coherent. It's a shame because the issues themselves are real.

  • Given all this complexity you do wonder how trade ever gets going at all!
    You can add to what has already been mentioned.....politically imposed tariffs and sanctions all making business judgements and investments risky in some countries. Also businesses have a duty of care to their employees who clearly can be exposed in some regimes - potentially...

  • We have discussed trade being a bringer of peace between nations and I think discussions and negotiations between leaders in general does help stabilise international relations. It's better when leaders do know each other personally.
    As stated, cementing that with signed agreements is not perfect but it is at least something that brings some level of...

  • I found the cases described above somewhat extreme and the commentary focussing on the 'bad' elements that do exist, but not giving an overall balanced analysis. In answer to the questions :
    1. I do think loyalty plays a role. The world does have some naturally allied countries.
    2. I think globalisation has led to some economic elites ...the 'haves'....they...

  • This makes me think about Huawei, the Chinese Government supported telecomms multinational. The governments of Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the US have banned Huawei from involvement in their 5 G developments because of cybersecurity concerns. This naturally has rankled the Chinese Government and brought about adverse commentary and more between the parties.

  • I absolutely agree that open trade is a peace enabler and sustainer. I think also, but less certain that properly open elections help stabilise international relations.
    Germany : Russia is an interesting example.
    Germany is actively building its gas supplies from Russia via Nord Stream 2 so trade is increasing.
    But NATO is investing in arms and systems to...

  • I personally am very traditional in my thinking I know. If you migrate to another country, you do so by choice and you should at least respect if not actually take on the values of that country. And you should not try and impose your incoming culture onto the people who have accepted you into their country.
    I also believe that education should be totally...

  • Some of this content was new for me.....the linking of poverty and endogamous societies to the existence of warfare. The fact that these groups generally have the highest birthrates, are more likely to migrate and want to then implant their culture is other more open states gives plenty of food for thought.

  • I watched recently a series WW2 in the Pacific. The human disaster on all sides was appalling. The futility of war and the havoc it wreaks stood out glaringly. Heroic and glorious it was not.
    In general I think peoples and nation states have long memories of tragic events or periods for their countries. I believe it can take several generations to pass since...

  • I must admit I cannot get too exercised about this. That's possibly because I am a native english speaker. I think the use of different languages will evolve naturally and internationally as peoples want it to. We can't regulate it internationally. Locally, nationally, like say Irish, less common languages might have national 'protection' through education...

  • I have read this a few times trying to determine what the real message is here and struggled. I have mentioned a few times myself the inequalities that globalisation has brought to communities and the consequent rise of populism etc. It is true there is a lot of unease in the world, but to claim it is falling apart is a leap to a conclusion too far for me.

  • Thanks for your thoughts Andrew. Yes I agree, possible. But a trade off could be having an ever present 'renegade' state on their border.

  • A request if I may : I have looked back to section 1 and noted we have participants who hail from :
    Portugal, Jamaica, Cameroon, Pakistan, Nigeria, West Indies, Poland, Japan,Burundi, Sudan, Greece, USA and UK.
    This is tremendously diverse. I would love to hear from more of you on what you are thinking and get an exchange of views from different parts of...

  • Andrew, I think that's a fair point. In my visits to Aus I have really noticed the 'thinking' media being very worried too about the steadily increasing hold China is exerting on Aus and its natural sphere of Pacific influence. Some are saying Aus must diversify and look to India...but I don't know if that also means further majoring on resource extraction.

  • A good question Andrew. Hmm.....I think we will fall to some degree under the influence of China....they have a major financing role in Hinckley B(?) we have not ruled out Huawei yet(?) you sense an increasing stakeholding in the UK coming.
    A lot of our gas comes from Qatar - if this fell foul of the ME we too might have to look to Russia more, as fracking...

  • A really impressive and coherent list of readings well put together. For me, for now, the complexity of the course content and discussions provide more than enough to dwell on!

  • One of the main conclusions stated in the video is that all the challenges have one thing in common....'they question the territorial perimeter of states....'.

    Many, many highly relevant and real challenges were discussed and views shared. But I myself did not end up with that as a conclusion of the evidence/discussions.

    That we have to work together as...

  • As said a number of times, climate change will only be countered if we all (certainly the major players) globally work and act together. Chances of this are slim because of the protection of self interests. It will likely take a direct catastrophe to change this behaviour. Then it might be too late.
    Can countries have no enemies? I think maybe yes. Small...

  • As a region looking from afar it seems to be really held back by itself :
    - extreme politics both right and left
    - violent elections and coups
    - appalling crime levels driven by endemic drug production and trafficking
    - reported widespread corruption at all levels
    - basket case economies (Argentina, Venezuela - despite its resources)
    And as a result its...

  • Indeed given the hotspot that is the ME, Asia flies a bit under our Western radar. North Korea flares up and occasionally Kashmir but not continuously as per the ME.
    I hadn't realised the extent that post war tensions and issues still to be resolved exist. They are conflict sources and until resolved will preclude co-operation. It seems memories are strong...

  • The ME is such a complex, multi faceted, factional, nuanced region. It is so so hard (partic for us Westerners) to get your head around it and try to understand it. The article above has helped me a bit. The point about peoples keeping returning to the military because it is the only hope for some stability and peace in life is well made.
    But to the above...

  • No question Africa has potential. There is some fast growth but a lot from a very low base. But it remains beset with problems :
    - war (Libya, Somalia, DRC...)
    - endemic tribalism as explained in the article
    - corruption ( even the strongest most developed economies are riddled with it).
    - health, education etc all at a very low level overall.
    I believe...

  • - As commented earlier, I think Nation States are disappearing with the mass transnational movement of peoples. I believe States might change through the likes of independence claims (Scotland, Catalonia, Kurds...) but not collapse.
    - the second para in the text is rather simplistic. Climate change is a real threat to all but as we have recognised no major...

  • Frank Willsdon made a comment

    Yes, I agree, US influence is steadily on the decline and the power of China, economic, growing military, massive population, all powerful leader is clearly on the rise. It shows all the signs of wanting to be a hegemony with its expansionist programmes on land and sea and its economic colonisation of poor countries.
    The last article takes a rather benign...

  • Hamish, thank you for your response. It's quite some time since I worked in Aus but I visit regularly. My only home is there and it had a near miss with the fires last week. In the end I think public and international pressure will slowly change the course of the Aus government. It is going to be painful since the Aus economy is heavily linked to its natural...

  • I hadn't come across this RtP norm before. Even if there is a prima facie case for intervention it is much easier said than done. Take two examples in current times :
    - China's persecution of the Uyghur moslems placing in them in what are close to concentration camps for 're-education'
    - Burma's persecution of the Rohingya moslems resulting them in fleeing...

  • I feel that US hegemony is on the wane. Obama was clearly reluctant to get involved overseas (Syria chemical weapons) and Trump wants America first at home and despite mixed messages (recent Iran incident) does not seem to want to be an active overseas interventionist.
    China is clearly on the rise. Its actions of economic colonisation and establishment of...

  • The majority of this article content is probably preaching to the converted - i.e the sort of interested and concerned people who do this sort of course.
    I fear the very first para sums it up rather well :
    ....'No large country that counts in the world economy is prepared to sacrifice its inhabitants’ standard of living or way of life to save the...

  • Frank Willsdon made a comment

    I am very surprised that the course has not mentioned China's loan activity in Africa. It has actively encouraged huge loans to many African states to enable them to build infrastructure. Uganda is one of those countries and I was there a few months ago on holiday. The Chinese were very visible in all the infrastructure work going on. In talking with educated...

  • Already mentioned in this course have been a huge range of problems and issues. I think some are surfacing in more recent years :
    - climate change we are just really starting to see the effects
    - overpopulation : how do we feed and provide water for so many and increasing fast
    - cyber security
    - conflict enabled by the internet, locally fanned by social...

  • Quite some provocative content in this section. A few comments :
    - democracy is far from perfect but if you asked anyone living in a western democratic country would they swap it for an authoritarian regime the answer would be no.
    - and in contrast there is plenty of evidence of people in authoritarian regimes certainly wanting more freedom and perhaps...

  • The article is correct in suggesting a never ending challenge and right now it looks like it will get worse. I can't speak to climate change impacts (see Hamish below) but certainly major factors driving international refugees/migrants from their native countries are :
    - economic desperation (no work or money)
    - civil war ( personal safety)
    - starvation...