Universal Simplexity
about.me/simplexitycatalysts
Location Melbourne
Activity
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@CristianUrlea
There is no statement in Haskell I thought? -
@HenderikusdePoel
The next question...
Can we design culture?
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/17/science-behind-brexit-vote-trump -
@HenderikusdePoel
In complex systems, there is a concept of fractal engagement, perhaps the course has yet to touch on this point.
When we design a system especially a complex and adaptive one, we can seed the system, attractors in technical terms. In other words, we can choose to focus on different scales - micro, meso or macro.
It does not mean we are... -
@HenderikusdePoel
On the other hand, this economist believes the economy is a complex adaptive system - https://www.ted.com/talks/kate_raworth_a_healthy_economy_should_be_designed_to_thrive_not_grow?language=en -
@HenderikusdePoel
Thank you for your summary and insights. I have heard her interview about her other book - the value of everything - but did not realize she is an advocate for a central planning economy, which is quite incongruent with her ideas that money cannot measure everything. -
@BradAtchison
Welcome to Rethinking Capitalism - https://marianamazzucato.com/publications/rethinking-capitalism/ -
@ChristopherReynolds
That proves the point that we human beings suffers from confirmation bias? -
Welcome to http://www.rethinkeconomics.org/about/
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@JannieArmstrong
As George E. P. Box said "All models are wrong, but some are useful". It really comes down to the purpose of the model at the end of the day. If it fulfills its purpose, it is a useful model. -
@ChristopherReynolds
Indeed, it is the D for difference in the CDE model - http://wiki.hsdinstitute.org/cde -
Universal Simplexity made a comment
One perspective of why the invention of agriculture by our prefrontal love is actually bad for human kind -http://discovermagazine.com/1987/may/02-the-worst-mistake-in-the-history-of-the-human-race
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@MaryMayer unfortunately, due to time constraints my contribution above is the best I could afford currently. You might like to study this site carefully to learn more about PNI -http://www.workingwithstories.org
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@CHAVABAHLE let the participants interpret their own stories. Experts opinions are not welcomed in a qualitative research!
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@GregoryThorn
@MaryMayer
@SandraGregson
The only way I know of that can mitigate the effects of bias is through participatory narrative inquiry to harness collective intelligence. -
@MonicaTaylor @CatherineComfort
You might be interested in the following resource
http://rightquestion.org/blog/the-question-formulation-technique-for-deepening-thought/ -
The key is you are able to extract tacit knowledge from your target audience, only stories or personas are capable of. Asking questions may not provide the insights you are after because humans cant tell you everything they know. Lookup stories in knowledge management to understand the science behind it.
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You have not seen the power yet. Personas or user stories are a way to extract tacit knowledge from your target audience. Traditional requirements gathering can be gamed. Alex alluded to this in earlier lectures when he said users will say yes to everything you ask !
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The key difference in the use of personas in #1 above is that you learn the requirements instead of getting requirements from asking direct questions in the traditional approach - they are very different.
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Furthermore, if done well, you avoid the problems of getting answers that were given because they were thought to be more politically correct especially in a sensitive environment.
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An even more powerful thought is to seek patterns from many many diverse stories or personas from your target community. You will be surprised what you can discover !
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Personas or stories let you get inside the minds of your target audience !
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humanizing the problem definition phase of any projects ya?
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Certainly personas can be used in your scenario of product showcasing. In fact, personas is a small subset of what we call narrative inquiry (http://www.storycoloredglasses.com/p/participatory-narrative-inquiry.html) to get into the minds of our target users because humans are just not able to tell you what they know (so called tacit knowledge in the field of...
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The key difference between this method and traditional method is that there is no user requirements to start with. Instead, designers look for patterns in user persona(s) to explore possible gaps they could address in the problem space before moving to the solution space.
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Universal Simplexity replied to Samuel Bello
Test report is human readable, they are not codes ! They tell you exactly what functions have been tested with what inputs and what outputs. Isn't that much more useful than writing document that gets out of date as soon as it is published?
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Universal Simplexity replied to Ian Atherton
No, why would you say that? In fact, on the contrary, as a client, I would be expecting to see the aircraft very shortly after agreeing to buy one from the vendor. My outcome could be I as a government needs to be ready to defend the territory against such and such kind of attack (I am not familiar with warfare aircraft) by next month. There is no...
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Universal Simplexity replied to Jackie Palman
Well, you are managing your client's satisfaction by focusing on outcomes. If you ask your client do you want this button of not, of course they cannot tell you !
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Universal Simplexity replied to Paola Bravo
This is a good question. Essentially, the principle here is manage by outcomes, both client and contractor are committed to, not by outputs such as pay me X when you get documentation Y or software Z.
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Universal Simplexity replied to Samuel Bello
@Ian Atherton
The documentation is in the code itself or in the test reports. They are usually auto-generated. So you get a ton of documentation for free :D -
Universal Simplexity replied to Ian Atherton
But the definition of "when it is ready" in an agile world is in day #1 because as Google has demonstrated in its gmail service, it is always in forever beta mode but it is out there for users to use.
So the milestone is time-boxed with a set of features (usually called stories) that are committed to be delivered at end of the time frame. The difference here... -
Your question has a lot to do with whether the problem space is well-defined or not. This course (https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/complexity-and-uncertainty) explains a problem space that is "complex". If your problem is situated in such a domain, agile would be an appropriate method and arguably the only way forward as waterfall assumes you have perfect...
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Universal Simplexity replied to Ella Q
I was trying to say anything related to an airplane is a complicated system :D
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Universal Simplexity replied to Ella Q
Airplane is a complicated, not complex system!
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Universal Simplexity replied to Achal H P
A model would be useful if it accurately predicts some future events. Because it is non-repeatable, all predictions will be approximate only.
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Behavioral Economics do away with the rational human being requirement as it recognises that human being suffered from cognitive biases.
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Universal Simplexity made a comment
But economists have failed to explain the recent financial crisis even with the best models at their disposal, agree?
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Universal Simplexity made a comment
George E. P. Box said all models are wrong, some are useful.
Therefore, if mathematical models are designed to be useful, but not aiming to represent the real world, they can be good tool as basis for sound decision-making to better prepare ourselves for the complex and uncertain future. -
You may want to google for more details. In fact, take another MOOC https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:LinuxFoundationX+LFS171x+3T2017/course/ to study the implications of using a distributed logging system that is temper-proof yet does not require a central authority to maintain trust between parties because the system is able to produce...
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From a pragmatic point of view, it really does not matter. This is a problem for the philosophers. The real question for me is how can I intervene if the purpose is unclear? More interestingly, do I care?
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I hope you will enjoy this blog https://expert360.com/blog/strategic-planning-process-template/
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how do you think 2 bodies can co-evolve, compete or cooperate or create emergence by interacting with each other?
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Furthermore, there is another school of thought that the entire universe is nothing but a giant computation engine of evolution!
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This is an example of centralisation of power block chain can help avoid!
"Central banks continue to focus on consumption inflation, not asset inflation, in their decisions," Andy Xie, the former chief economist for Asia Pacific at Morgan Stanley, writes in a South China Morning Post column. Their approach has "supported one bubble after another," and these... -
Oh that is not the concentration I meant. If someone spent the resources to mine, they are 100% entitled to to the rewards, no?
I am referring to institutions today who dont add value and yet is able to exercise control over the market. This can no longer happen in a blockchain-democratized world :-) -
Because blockchain will truly democratize the market as there will be no concentration of wealth! Nobody can control anything in such a world.
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Hi Ashmead, I believe the joke is telling us to start from a different point if we wish to make progress in quantum theory (mechanics, field theory etc etc). Something like it is insane to expect a different outcome if we keep repeating to do the same thing again and again. Or we cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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"Tononi conceives of consciousness as information: bits that are encoded not in the states of individual neurons, but in the complex networking of neurons, which link together in the brain into larger and larger ensembles. Tononi argues that this special “integrated information” corresponds to the unified, integrated state that we experience as subjective...
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Universal Simplexity replied to [Learner left FutureLearn]
Our body immune system is self-organising, responding to bacteria, virus or any foreign particle attack without the brain's instructions.
In fact, studies have found that bacteria in our gut actually communicate with our brain, thus influencing its behaviour, but not the other way round.
Therefore, gut health has become a hot research topic today. -
Hi Nick,
What Cairo is saying is that the system as a whole does not have any objectives even though individuals within the system may have objectives which then influence the system as a whole. Do you start to realise the "complexity" now? Who is cause and who is effect since either can become the other from moment to moment? -
Hi Andrey, "preferential attachment" also contributes to quick frictionless propagation of ideas and information in network science. That would be a good thing?
Nonetheless, history is filled with rich families that control the flow of information, goods and services as the middleman.
In other words, there are many possible reasons as in all complex systems... -
Would evolution still mean planned change in line with objectives in your opinion, Andrey?
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Perhaps a free market underpinned by blockchain technology would be fairer?
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There are certain universality in all complex systems that we can predict (coarse-grained) with the help of big data. Prof Geoffrey West from Santa Fe Institute explained some of them here https://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations
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Think of it this way ... information is a property of each part whereas knowledge is the property of the whole system made up of those parts.
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And it gets even more complex if you try to figure out what makes consciousness? Is it simply an emergent property of interacting neurons?
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Universal Simplexity replied to Ella Q
Hi Ella, a clock especially one made by a swiss master is a complicated system. Is that a thing or a system in your definition?
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Paul, you have just given us an example of how a complex system is turned into a simple system to gain control and then allowed to become complex again in daily operation. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin for the distinction between simple, complicated, complex and chaos.
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Even homogenous parts making up a system like an ant colony or a flock of birds or a bee hive can produce a complex system
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Universal Simplexity replied to Ella Q
If the whole is the sum of parts, one can study the system as a whole by studying each part in a typical reductionist approach. That is just complicated. In a complex system, any attempts to break the system into parts for isolated study is impossible. In fact, any attempts top study the system is introducing interventions into the system that otherwise not...
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Yes, spot on. Complicated because there are too many if-then-else rules that only an expert can understand. Complex not because of too many rules but in fact simple rules such as how each bird follows in a group result in flocking no one could predict. So complex because of the dynamic interdependencies between elements of the system such that any attempts...
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Christiana,
Be very careful with your conclusions of what is a cause vs what is an effect, even in retrospection because a complex system is a dynamic system that is co-evolving with the environment with which it is interacting. What is cause in one moment may be an effect in another. This is also one key difference between complex and complicated systems... -
Universal Simplexity replied to Victor Usher
You asked "...is each responsible for a particular function that eventually gets a job completed without each having an effect on others or is each's activity causing the others to complete their's?"
I believe you would have picked up an important characteristic of complex system from the video....interaction between autonomous agents. Through this mechanism... -
According to Prof Jeff, System Thinking & Dynamics and Complexity are both ends of a continuous spectrum of problem solving techniques for wicked or ill-defined problems. The former is based ion statistics while the latter is based on computer simulations of interactions between every agent modelled in the system. That is the difference I now understood. ...
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So what really is the difference between the 2 methods?
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Thank you for responding but I am not sure how "the purpose of the system" got into this conversation. I am questioning the existence of the 3 sub-systems of decision-making, transformation-execution and performance-monitoring as stated in the model in a self-organised system like a flock of birds, where only a few simple rules are all that each birds obeys...
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The VSM guide is not accessible
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Alright, point taken. Except for plus and minus to denote positive or negative feedbacks, systems diagrams have not other specific capabilities for indicating the strength of the influence or causal relationships, something we can model using labels on the lines or arrows ourselves.
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Hi Stan, in my research dot can mean anything since I after a decision-making framework that is universal. Thank you for the link. I gather from the paper that the kind of dot - transient or noise - matters albeit little else information about identifying or designing meaningful dots. Are you aware if the authors have written any papers on the application...
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Universal Simplexity replied to Simon Beard
To be fair to this course, the design process is not linear. There is a loop back from implementation back to generating alternative designs. This can occur any number of times. According to Prof Jeffrey, this design process is best applied to social systems in which there is some amount of control such as a government over a country. He did also explain...
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That was one difference I am looking for .... "a systems thinking approach implies that systems will always behave in the same way" vs non-predictability in complex systems. Thank you.
My question was really the difference between a complex system vs one that can be analysed by Systems Dynamics. -
The multiple identities we take on as a member of the society is a complex concept, explained here - http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/social-atomism-identity-natural-numbers/
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I might be missing something here but one can always draw an arrow back from one subsystem back to the wider system to capture feedback loops in an influence diagram as you have pointed out, no?
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As this course has taught us, the boundary is determined by the purpose and the extent of control a system has. This concept is only useful to the extent interventions can be designed and monitored. To me, the nature of this boundary as you have explained above is not important unless it affects the relationship between elements across the boundary, does it?...
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As this course has pointed out, purpose is subjective, therefore, a process of continuous negotiation between all members of the social system you are referring to, to establish a common purpose and to maintain its viability going forward....not an easy task among a diverse group of stakeholders obviously. That is also why agility as defined by the Agile...
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I suspect a social system is made up of so many human agents that one cannot really draw a system map to show the list of agents involved, can you? How does one apply Systems Dynamics to understand the dynamics that is going on in a large corporate office say?
Of course, I can understand that the decision-making and performance monitoring subsystems are now... -
However, I would like to point out that while Cynefin Framework is great as a problem categorization tool so that one can vary his/her problem solving approach depending on which quadrant it falls into, I suspect the starting point of this course is Systems Thinking which does not nicely falls into neither the complicated nor the complex domains as defined in...
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Great! I now better appreciate where this formal systems model may be useful. I have also taken your course in Global Systems Science. What other resources are available to me as I continue my research in http://simplexity.info.tm?
Thank you Prof Jeffrey for replying my 2 questions today. -
Thanks, Prof Jeffrey.
So let me confirm again my understanding. Complexity science has computational methods much richer than that of system dynamics?
Also I find that it is nearly impossible to draw system map, causal diagram or network model and even perform system dynamics when the system consists of so many agents like in the case of flock of birds,... -
Universal Simplexity made a comment
At the end of this course, I am still not clear what the difference is or are between complexity and systems thinking. Any advice?
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Universal Simplexity made a comment
What is the difference between complexity and systems thinking?
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Those questions are good but real complex systems may not even obey such structure such as a flock of birds. They are self organised!
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Universal Simplexity made a comment
Hi fellow course mates,
I come from a IT policy settings background and it is really insightful to read the diverse range of views here.
Is there any interest to form a study group to discuss and learn from each other the application of Global Systems Science GSS and Systems Thinking and Complexity STC to real world problems beyond the duration of this... -
Universal Simplexity made a comment
Hi fellow course mates,
I come from a IT policy settings background and it is really insightful to read the diverse range of views here.
Is there any interest to form a study group to discuss and learn from each other the application of GSS to real world problems beyond the duration of this course and many others in Coursera, edX etc?"We cannot solve...
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Business models also change in today's 4th Industrial Revolution. So any proven business model does not turn uncertainty into calculable risks too.
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Typewriters are only not novel in retrospection. Yes, more imaginative power could help imagine a future with more advanced machines. But the point is still valid that however long one is in business as Jeroen puts it initially does not remove the uncertainty. May be risk is reduced but not uncertainty. Coming up with a novel solution is one way of...
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May we have the priviledge of learning from you how you have built resilience into the system?
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Because we are part of the social complex system :-)
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But Prof Lex have explained someone who took the decision to build a factory producing typewriters has no idea PCs will replace them eventually, regardless of how long they may be in business, yes?
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Risk and uncertainty are not the same, where one knows all possible outcomes in the former one cannot know all of them under uncertainty.
