Joeri Schasfoort

Joeri Schasfoort

I am currently a lecturer at University of Groningen and YouTube show host at the Money & Macro channel.

Location Groningen

Activity

  • Hi Khalid. There are two problems: (1) that is not the correct model version, (2) the Axelrod models do not work using the web version of Netlogo. To interact with them you need to install the desktop version of Netlogo.

    Link to the correct version of the model: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/Dissemination%20of%20Culture

    Hope that...

  • I stopped reading these a long time ago for that very reason.

  • The animations are different but similar. They do cover the same story. Thanks for sharing the link.

  • Risk and Uncertainty in this course are presented as two opposites on a scale. In your case, probably through experience and data collection, you know more about the possible outcomes (yet you probably do not know all of them as you would with a role of the dice). Thus, as you say, to *some extend* you can calculate the probability of a fire starting at a...

  • The Casino can predict it that is for sure. Gamblers can predict other gamblers lose money on average. Yet, they might believe they can beat the odds.

  • It might change other forms of complex systems in ways that I do not know. I do believe that this effect is most obvious in the study of social systems.

  • I believe the text in that link in freely available (let me know if that is indeed the case).

  • Hayek is also known for his advocacy of a broad range of free market policies and, indeed, considered the substantially unregulated market system to be superior to competing alternatives precisely because it made the best use of dispersed knowledge. Our purpose in writing this paper is twofold: First, we believe that Hayek's economic vision and critique of...

  • Actually there is a really interesting (in my opinion) paper on this in the journal of economic perspectives: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.3.215

  • I would say, language is complicated. Yet the users that shape it together are a complex system. The crux is that the users of a language are decision makers who interact.

  • Are you unable to view it online? Or a downloaded version Lakshman?

  • I'm not entirely sure what you did expect? The subtitle of the course is: "This course will teach you the first principles of complexity, uncertainty and how to make decisions in a complex world."

    What would you see as an "attempt to deal with considerations of emergent behaviour, complexity or uncertainty"?

  • I might have some suggestions but it depends on what parts of the course you found most interesting.

    I usually recommend https://www.complexityexplorer.org/ for a more in-depth materials on complexity.

    We have some more courses here: https://www.futurelearn.com/partners/university-of-groningen

    Showing how dependent my suggestions are on your...

  • Indeed we have only scratched the surface. Much more is out there to discover.

    More in depth courses can be found here: https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses

    Also, two interesting journals on these subjects:

    http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html
    http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/acs

  • Still, I believe that something can be done to limit the negative excesses of asset bubbles. The people who have been developing Basel 3 banking regulations have thought about the following: capital ratio's to limit bank leverage, liquidity ratios to limit bank runs and panics, loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratio's to limit lending to assets....

  • Good to hear that. The philosophy was to have the quizzes for repetition of simple concepts. The test questions where a bit more difficult and are supposed to help learners make sure that they indeed understood the concepts.

  • Thanks Josien, I'll have a look at it.

  • Absolutely, great example.

  • Thank you for the example Eric. It fascinates me to see that often cities can get such a critical mass that people don't leave them even if they really do not work well (too much chaos). I noticed this myself in Jakarta which is very much at risk of flooding: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/01/08/keeping-indonesias-capital-safer-from-floods

  • Sounds great: https://www.flickr.com/ is an known option.

  • It seems wise for the designers of those systems to follow this course and make sure that their systems are flexible enough to deal with changes in the city.

  • 1. For non-systemically destructive ones, I think so. It is difficult to prove of course. I do believe that the banking sector is much more robust and highly regulated these days.
    2. We still have a large debt overhang these days. I think it is solvable, if prudent debt-write downs become more accepted.

  • You are absolutely right. At the time, banking debt was the most pressing problem. Currently, a rethink of our pension system is high on the agenda.

  • This documentary was actually a motivation for us to produce this series. As some of the concepts here are correct they make, in our minds, a lot of unfounded claims with them. For example promoting a fixed quantity of shiny metal (gold) as a good type of money for an breathing (expanding and contracting on a daily basis) complex economic system.

  • Yes, but I have to admit that it is very difficult to say what sort of debt is non-productive. Sure mortgage debt to pump up housing prices or margin debt to increase stock prices seem, and often are, unproductive. Yet, productive and unforeseen effects result. For example, there is often talk of a bubble in tech stock in Sillicon Valley. Yet, this does create...

  • In agreement with Harit, I think there is a difference between more emergent phenomena happening in a system and increased fragility. Increased fragility would make a break down of the system more likely.

  • I'm not sure that has to be the case though. One could have said the same for agricultural land a few centuries ago. However, the relative price of agricultural land declined, while recently that of urban land shot up.

  • But how would you define a 'weak system'?

  • Interesting interview on complexity and macroeconomics: http://evonomics.com/macroeconomics-alan-kirman-blind-alley/

  • I think there can be social and for-profit crowdfunding initiatives. It probably depends on the platform. But, I can definitely see certain crowdfunding platforms being motivated by providing funding for local initiatives.

    Other examples in developed economies might be cooperative banks or building associations. Firms that were created mainly for a societal...

  • As stated in the lecture, in many developing countries of the state as an actor in economic life has created the need to address social problems in the private sector. This is indeed not always the case.

  • It is true, this video is more recent than the others. It used to be the case that the Futurelearn platform offered the pdf file whereas now you click "view transcript."

  • That is an excellent addition. And in this new market the order is again shaped by competing entrepreneurs. An interesting example for me would be the newly emerged virtual reality market: http://www.digi-capital.com/news/2015/04/augmentedvirtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-disrupting-mobile-by-2020/#.V_zlOfmLSUk

  • Sorry, that part was indeed missing.

    This is a link to the article (at the end is the test which you can take):

    http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/psychology/pdf/scales/SCSR_article.pdf

  • No. We do shine a light on some common biases in our decision making and focus on how we can improve our decision making in a way that is beneficial for both the individual and the group.

  • During the gold standard countries committed to fix the price of their currency to gold. However since the amount of gold is relatively stable and the demand for currency fluctuates, this made gold flow into and out of countries central banks. Gold flowing in is not so much of a problem. Gold flowing out can only happen until the stockpile is depleted. Still...

  • I agree that the US central bank probably no longer really users a taylor rule. But too suggest it only looks at the SP500 is also a bit too simplistic in my opinion. Inflation and unemployment are also a factor of concern for these decision makers.

    I agree with your scepticism about the central bank being able to really control much in the economy. After...

  • I hope it did (positively). Last course run week 3 was very heavy and we felt we did not do the material justice by jamming it all in one week.

  • Yes cellular automata is a subclass of ABM. In it the agents are cells in a grid structure. Why would you choose for a grid structure? Mostly, if you are interested in modelling spatial dynamics.

    By the way, the models shown here are very much introductory. There are many possibilities. What about a mixed model in which agents are partly influenced by...

  • Yes that is very much a possible extension of the model.

  • Yes the game of life is a classic cellular automata model.