Joeri Schasfoort
I am currently a lecturer at University of Groningen and YouTube show host at the Money & Macro channel.
Location Groningen
Activity
-
Hi Khalid. There are two problems: (1) that is not the correct model version, (2) the Axelrod models do not work using the web version of Netlogo. To interact with them you need to install the desktop version of Netlogo.
Link to the correct version of the model: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/Dissemination%20of%20Culture
Hope that...
-
I stopped reading these a long time ago for that very reason.
-
The animations are different but similar. They do cover the same story. Thanks for sharing the link.
-
Risk and Uncertainty in this course are presented as two opposites on a scale. In your case, probably through experience and data collection, you know more about the possible outcomes (yet you probably do not know all of them as you would with a role of the dice). Thus, as you say, to *some extend* you can calculate the probability of a fire starting at a...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Nicola James
The Casino can predict it that is for sure. Gamblers can predict other gamblers lose money on average. Yet, they might believe they can beat the odds.
-
It might change other forms of complex systems in ways that I do not know. I do believe that this effect is most obvious in the study of social systems.
-
I believe the text in that link in freely available (let me know if that is indeed the case).
-
Hayek is also known for his advocacy of a broad range of free market policies and, indeed, considered the substantially unregulated market system to be superior to competing alternatives precisely because it made the best use of dispersed knowledge. Our purpose in writing this paper is twofold: First, we believe that Hayek's economic vision and critique of...
-
Actually there is a really interesting (in my opinion) paper on this in the journal of economic perspectives: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.3.215
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Ella Q
I would say, language is complicated. Yet the users that shape it together are a complex system. The crux is that the users of a language are decision makers who interact.
-
Are you unable to view it online? Or a downloaded version Lakshman?
-
I'm not entirely sure what you did expect? The subtitle of the course is: "This course will teach you the first principles of complexity, uncertainty and how to make decisions in a complex world."
What would you see as an "attempt to deal with considerations of emergent behaviour, complexity or uncertainty"?
-
I might have some suggestions but it depends on what parts of the course you found most interesting.
I usually recommend https://www.complexityexplorer.org/ for a more in-depth materials on complexity.
We have some more courses here: https://www.futurelearn.com/partners/university-of-groningen
Showing how dependent my suggestions are on your...
-
Indeed we have only scratched the surface. Much more is out there to discover.
More in depth courses can be found here: https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses
Also, two interesting journals on these subjects:
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html
http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/acs -
Still, I believe that something can be done to limit the negative excesses of asset bubbles. The people who have been developing Basel 3 banking regulations have thought about the following: capital ratio's to limit bank leverage, liquidity ratios to limit bank runs and panics, loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratio's to limit lending to assets....
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Patricia Harvey
Good to hear that. The philosophy was to have the quizzes for repetition of simple concepts. The test questions where a bit more difficult and are supposed to help learners make sure that they indeed understood the concepts.
-
Thanks Josien, I'll have a look at it.
-
Absolutely, great example.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Eric Ojo
Thank you for the example Eric. It fascinates me to see that often cities can get such a critical mass that people don't leave them even if they really do not work well (too much chaos). I noticed this myself in Jakarta which is very much at risk of flooding: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/01/08/keeping-indonesias-capital-safer-from-floods
-
Sounds great: https://www.flickr.com/ is an known option.
-
It seems wise for the designers of those systems to follow this course and make sure that their systems are flexible enough to deal with changes in the city.
-
1. For non-systemically destructive ones, I think so. It is difficult to prove of course. I do believe that the banking sector is much more robust and highly regulated these days.
2. We still have a large debt overhang these days. I think it is solvable, if prudent debt-write downs become more accepted. -
You are absolutely right. At the time, banking debt was the most pressing problem. Currently, a rethink of our pension system is high on the agenda.
-
This documentary was actually a motivation for us to produce this series. As some of the concepts here are correct they make, in our minds, a lot of unfounded claims with them. For example promoting a fixed quantity of shiny metal (gold) as a good type of money for an breathing (expanding and contracting on a daily basis) complex economic system.
-
Yes, but I have to admit that it is very difficult to say what sort of debt is non-productive. Sure mortgage debt to pump up housing prices or margin debt to increase stock prices seem, and often are, unproductive. Yet, productive and unforeseen effects result. For example, there is often talk of a bubble in tech stock in Sillicon Valley. Yet, this does create...
-
In agreement with Harit, I think there is a difference between more emergent phenomena happening in a system and increased fragility. Increased fragility would make a break down of the system more likely.
-
I'm not sure that has to be the case though. One could have said the same for agricultural land a few centuries ago. However, the relative price of agricultural land declined, while recently that of urban land shot up.
-
But how would you define a 'weak system'?
-
Joeri Schasfoort made a comment
Interesting interview on complexity and macroeconomics: http://evonomics.com/macroeconomics-alan-kirman-blind-alley/
-
I think there can be social and for-profit crowdfunding initiatives. It probably depends on the platform. But, I can definitely see certain crowdfunding platforms being motivated by providing funding for local initiatives.
Other examples in developed economies might be cooperative banks or building associations. Firms that were created mainly for a societal...
-
As stated in the lecture, in many developing countries of the state as an actor in economic life has created the need to address social problems in the private sector. This is indeed not always the case.
-
It is true, this video is more recent than the others. It used to be the case that the Futurelearn platform offered the pdf file whereas now you click "view transcript."
-
That is an excellent addition. And in this new market the order is again shaped by competing entrepreneurs. An interesting example for me would be the newly emerged virtual reality market: http://www.digi-capital.com/news/2015/04/augmentedvirtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-disrupting-mobile-by-2020/#.V_zlOfmLSUk
-
Sorry, that part was indeed missing.
This is a link to the article (at the end is the test which you can take):
http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/psychology/pdf/scales/SCSR_article.pdf
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Paula Sullivan
No. We do shine a light on some common biases in our decision making and focus on how we can improve our decision making in a way that is beneficial for both the individual and the group.
-
During the gold standard countries committed to fix the price of their currency to gold. However since the amount of gold is relatively stable and the demand for currency fluctuates, this made gold flow into and out of countries central banks. Gold flowing in is not so much of a problem. Gold flowing out can only happen until the stockpile is depleted. Still...
-
I agree that the US central bank probably no longer really users a taylor rule. But too suggest it only looks at the SP500 is also a bit too simplistic in my opinion. Inflation and unemployment are also a factor of concern for these decision makers.
I agree with your scepticism about the central bank being able to really control much in the economy. After...
-
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Dave Hall
I hope it did (positively). Last course run week 3 was very heavy and we felt we did not do the material justice by jamming it all in one week.
-
Yes cellular automata is a subclass of ABM. In it the agents are cells in a grid structure. Why would you choose for a grid structure? Mostly, if you are interested in modelling spatial dynamics.
By the way, the models shown here are very much introductory. There are many possibilities. What about a mixed model in which agents are partly influenced by...
-
Yes that is very much a possible extension of the model.
-
Yes the game of life is a classic cellular automata model.
-
I think that in economics game theory is very popular but it's evolutionary version not so much. This is indeed probably partly because of the dominance of believing in hyper smart agents in economics.
-
In that example the strategies are equivalent for the individual but there is a clear difference from the genes perspective.
-
In this case non-random, or non-accidental.
-
Except for this (admittedly multidisciplinary) one from our ecomics department (still we strive to bring more of this to core economics courses).
-
Sadly no clips were made. Speaker slides can be found here: http://www.ssc2016.cnr.it/speakers/75/invited-speakers-the-presentations
-
Using an ABM, you model only agent interactions. However, we are often interested in certain emergent phenomena (such as a refugee crisis). In the model this phenomena might also emerge (or grow) out of our modelled agents.
Validated here means comparing it to reality and judging the model sufficiently realistic for a certain purpose.
-
System dynamics is a more top down modelling technique. It models stocks and flows. ABM models individual agents in more detail.
-
It is easiest to open the file using the browser based version of Netlogo. That is what I do in the video:
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Altin Guberi
The most difficult concepts have been introduced. In the next week's, we will start applying these.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to imke everts
There is no deadline.
-
Are you working in the net logo web version? That should work irrespective of your operating system:
-
What seems to be the problem?
-
It depends a bit on which version of windows you have. But in my windows 10 it goes as follows: settings --> system --> about : "system type".
But indeed 32 bit usually works on every system.
-
If the phenomenon only emerges only under a few parameter values it's not very robust. In this csse, I'm fairly confident these type of patterns emerge under a large enough set of parameters.
Physicist dabbling in economics ;)
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Ian Del Rosario
Long is indeed subjective and might need some clarification.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
Small comment, I think the dancing group is more than the sum of its parts. It is more easy to join the group as it gets larger (up to a certain point). This attractiveness to join does increase linearly as people join it.
-
Many statistical models can also be classified as such.
-
I think that in economics equilibrium models can be classified as such.
-
You need to unzip it first indeed. I do not have a Mac but found this online:
Right-click the ZIP file on your Mac, click “Open With” from the pop-up menu and then click “Archive Utility” to decompress the file.
Does that work?
-
The island of non-adapters emerges as a consequence of the set-up and parameters of the model. Modifying it in the manner that you suggested might make it so that it no longer emerges.
-
The colour is just there to illustrate how the path moved over time. So that you easily see what cells changed their minds last. Nothing more.
-
Nobody is happy so the keep moving forever.
-
Growing emergent phenomena might be better indeed.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
But you could see a termite home as emergent? A unique pattern that emerges from interactions between individuals does not have to disappear I think.
-
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to A Williams
I would like to refer you to the discussion a few comments below.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to A Williams
Thanks I'll look into it for the next run :)
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
That Marten is called observer dependence. It is outside of the scope. But more on this in this great course from Delft University: https://ocw.tudelft.nl/courses/agent-based-modeling-of-complex-adaptive-systems-basic/subjects/observer-dependence/
-
Coded in Java which van Be found here: https://github.com/S120/jmab
-
It is based on this model: https://scholar.google.nl/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cluster=14641461081447348179
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
Harit, I think human language indeed emerged out of the interactions of humans.
A stochastic process is a random process moving over time. While behaviour produced by a complex system might resemble a stochastic process, I do not believe they are the same.
The behaviour of a complex system might be unpredictable but it is not random. Why is it so...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
Although then of course it depends how you "frame" your system. What is endogenous and what is exogenous. This question was written so that the event in France was an exogenous shock for the Dutch society.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
That is not my point. The theory of endogenous vulnerability is about vulnerability building up over time in the system itself (no outside influences). Debt crisis are often a great example. They build up over time until they are no longer sustainable and then they pop.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
I agree Dorothy. The communication itself is not emergence. It is the engine of emergence. Hives and hills are the emergent phenomena that can only appear because communication is happening.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
I agree that there is also a positive feedback loop in your accruing interest. That process is very predictable once you know the relevant variables (coupon, time steps, and interest rate). It is a complicated system. Yet, in the ant and bees examples the process is not predictable in detail like that. It emerges from the decisions of individuals.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Jonathan Jorba
Thanks. Your feedback and helpful links are much appreciated Amanda!
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
Second example. The emergent phenomenon is a flock of dancing bees around a food source. A bee finds food. Signals by dancing. This attracts more bees who in turn signal. This in turn attracts more bees.
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
In the first example the pattern or emergent phenomenon is the ant line. The ant line is formed by the pheromones of the individual ants. The line itself influences the behaviour of the individual ants which in turn strengthens the path (micro - macro -micro).
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Jonathan Jorba
Thanks, I will have a look at these sources to check if their information is relevant and / there are other credible yet simple sources with the same content.
-
Great to hear that. This years conference will start next week: http://www.essa.eu.org/event/conference-1/
-
Perhaps it can. Machine learning algorithms often make use of internal (linear models).
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Augustine Quek
Or you can use the online version: http://www.netlogoweb.org/
-
Why are there no results?
-
The network structure can be seen as a model of the complex system. So indeed the choice of what are edges and what are nodes depends on the question. It is a choice made by the modeller.
For example, I recently constructed a large agent-based model of a macro-economy. I was then struggling with how to make other economists understand what I was simulating...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
In the example of the ant the ant nest is an emergent property of the complex system of ants. It is an novel and coherent structure that was formed during the process of self organisation in the ant colony. There was no designer ant that thought of the nest it emerged out of the individual interactions of ants.
In the bee example the same can be said for a...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Comfort OGAR
Synchronised behaviour can of course be detrimental from time to time.
Still, is it not often beneficial to society? Is society even possible without synchronisation?
Examples of systems that rely on synchronisation of human behaviour:
- hospitals
- cities
- schools
- factories
- sports tournaments
- traffic
- society itself -
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Dave Hall
Are you referring to the concept of conformist, anti-conformist, non-conformist or to the lock-in concept?
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to J Doyle
I have not come across an animal with the ability to use abstract language. But, I am happy to be proven wrong and amend the quiz :).
-
See your comment about companies in the marketplace: https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/complexity-and-uncertainty/4/steps/85467/comments?page=3#comment_15631905
Regarding the income of top-managers, it seemed that by releasing CEO pay figures CEO's started to demand higher salaries. They saw each others salaries and started comparing to each other instead...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to imke everts
The fact that these companies have an incentive to create monopoly position can indeed be rephrased as them having an incentive to create a lock-in.
Why are loss making companies such as Uber, airBnB valued at such astronomically high figures? Because they hope to create a lock-in situation in which they are the dominant platform. After the lock-in is...
-
Great to hear, that is exactly why we include the concept in a course on decision making :).
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Jonathan Jorba
We try not to use Wikipedia as a source for any scientific arguments (please let me know if we do that anywhere).
Still as a quote from your Harvard link: http://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k70847&pageid=icb.page346376
"The fact that Wikipedia is not a reliable source for academic research doesn't mean that it's wrong to use basic reference...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Will Merrow-Smith
You could say that. Individual movement --> causes table to move in the same (positive) direction --> causes individuals to move in that same (positive) direction --> cause to table to move in the same direction --> ....
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Patricia Harvey
What is the direction of your research?
-
In this context, it shows that individual decisions are not always a matter of pure free will but they are also shaped by the collective.
-
It is indeed a bit of a teaser. When thinking about energy transition it can be helpful to think about it as a process of emergence. That is the choice of energy sources is not a single thing or choice. It is the sum of all choices made by individuals and organisations. Thus, if we want to shift the distribution of energy sources we should think about what...
-
Joeri Schasfoort replied to Alexey Zyukov
From the transcript of step 2.20: "So the first theory is shock and then propagation. The second theory about instability says that vulnerability in a network builds up from within and over time. That's what we call an endogenous process. So it's inherent in the network. It's inherent in the system. And it's not driven primarily by exogenous shocks."
The...
-
Some websites are indeed highly watched. Others much less so. That your graph looks like a scale-free graph makes a lot of sense. Of course your specific results depend on the websites that you visited.
It sounds like you really put a lot of effort into this. I would love to see your plots. Perhaps you would like to upload ( dropbox.com or imgur...
