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Fundamentals of Ocean Forecasting

Learn about the basics of ocean forecasting, from observation and models, to forecast products and downstream applications.

1,434 enrolled on this course

Illustrated diagram of an ocean forecasting system showing a satellite, buoy,  Argo float, research vessel, and coastal station collecting ocean data fed  into numerical models to produce forecast products. OPERA MOOC Set 1.
  • Duration

    7 weeks
  • Weekly study

    4 hours
  • Languages

    English, Español, Italiano, Français, PortuguêsEnglish, Español, Italiano
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Follow the science behind forecasting our changing oceans

The ocean is constantly in motion.

Currents shift, temperatures fluctuate, and waves and tides influence everything from fisheries and maritime transport to coastal communities and climate systems.

But how do scientists predict what happens beneath the surface?

On this seven-week course, you’ll uncover the science and technology that power modern, end-to-end ocean forecasting — from the physics of the ocean to the services that reach society.

Dive into the systems that make ocean forecasting possible

You’ll discover how observations, models, and user applications fit together and investigate the physical processes that drive ocean circulation, tides, waves, and variability.

Turn data and models into forecasts

You’ll learn how numerical models are developed and how satellites, Argo floats, buoys, and data assimilation improve forecast accuracy. You’ll explore the Copernicus Marine Service and build confidence interpreting sea surface temperature maps, current fields, and sea level anomalies.

Identify how ocean forecasts support communities and industries

Through examples from Africa and beyond, you’ll discover how ocean forecasts contribute to maritime safety, fisheries management, coastal planning, and disaster risk reduction. By the end, you’ll understand how ocean forecasting supports sustainable decision-making.

This course is developed as part of the OPERA Capacity Development Activities, led by the ICMPA-UNESCO Chair and GGOSSS. OPERA is implemented by Mercator Ocean International with EU funding, and the course draws on the ETOOFS Guide, the international reference for operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems.

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Skip to 0 minutes and 18 seconds The ocean sustains life on Earth.

Skip to 0 minutes and 23 seconds It regulates our climates, support fisheries and coastal economies. It enables global trade and provide food and livelihoods for billions of people around the world.

Skip to 0 minutes and 38 seconds And yet the ocean is changing. Rising temperatures, shifting currents, extreme weathers and rising seas. The signs are everywhere and the consequences are real.

Skip to 0 minutes and 58 seconds What if we could see it coming?

Skip to 1 minute and 3 seconds What if communities, industries and decision makers across Africa and across the world could access reliable forecast of the Ocean’s next move?

Skip to 1 minute and 15 seconds That capability exists, it is growing, and this course is where it begins. Welcome to this massive open online course, Fundamentals of Ocean Forecasting. This project is funded by the European Union through the OPERA Projects in the framework of Ocean Prediction DCC, implemented by Mercato Ocean International and profused by the Gulf of Guineas Ocean Science Summer School - ICMPA - UNESCO Chair. Over 7 modules you will build a full picture of how modern ocean forecasting systems work, from the physics of the ocean to the models that simulate it, to the people and industries. That depends on what it tells us.

Skip to 2 minutes and 0 seconds Whether you’re a students, a working scientist, an environmental professional, or even someone just curious about the sea, this course is for you. Ocean forecasting is not one thing, it is a chain. 7 connected steps, each building from the lasts. We start with the bigger picture. Module 1 introduces the full forecasting chain, observation, models, services and users, all connected in a continuous loop. You will see why feedback from users is what makes them improve. Then we get into the physics. Module 2 builds your understanding about the forces that drives the ocean, circulations, tides, waves, mesoscale eddies, and the processes that shapes the marine ecosystem. This is the science that lies beneath forecasting. From there, we open up the forecasting machine itself.

Skip to 2 minutes and 59 seconds Module 3 takes you inside numerical ocean models, the computational engines behind every prediction. You will explore how they are built, how resolution shapes their results, and why every modeling choice matters.

Skip to 3 minutes and 19 seconds But a model without data is only theory. Module 4 connects models to real ocean through observations and data assimilation. Satellites measuring sea surface heights and temperatures. Argo floats drifting at depths, mooring buoys along the coasts. You will learn how these observations are collected, validated and fused with model outputs, reducing uncertainty of every forecast predicted.

Skip to 3 minutes and 51 seconds Every forecast is only as good as what fits it. Module 5 maps the data landscape. Where do inputs come from? How do Copernicus Marine Products, Era 5, Atmospheric Forcing and Open Access data sets enter the system and how do you assess them? Producing a forecast is only half the job. Reading it is another. Module 6 teaches you on how to interpret a forecast, what it is telling you, and what it’s next. This means learning how to read ocean data products such as maps, time series, vertical profiles and anomalies. How do you identify uncertainty, How do you avoid misreading a signal, and how do you communicate ocean information clearly to non scientists?

Skip to 4 minutes and 42 seconds And in the final module, we’ll see what all of this is for. Module 7 brings the system to life through real world applications such as marine safety, fisheries, pollution monitoring, offshore operations, and coastal management. Through African and regional case studies, forecasting becomes what it truly is, a tool to protect lives and sustain livelihoods. 7 modules, one connected journey. Ocean forecasting is not only a scientific discipline, it is a tool for empowerment, preparedness, and sustainable developments in the world that urgently needs it. This is your invitation to be a part of it. The ocean connects us all. Join us.

Syllabus

  • Week 1

    Overview of the end-to-end ocean forecasting system

    • Getting started

      Welcome

    • What is ocean forecasting and why does it matter?

      Discover why the ocean matters, explore the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, and learn the fundamentals of operational oceanography: its pillars, value chain, and forecast products for society.

    • Why do we need ocean forecasting systems?

      Discover how ocean forecasts support the Blue Economy and help society manage coastal hazards.

    • From Ocean Observations to Forecasting Systems: A Brief History

      Trace the evolution of ocean forecasting from ancient maritime navigation to the foundations of oceanography, the rise of satellite observation, the Argo programme, and today's Digital Twin Ocean initiatives.

    • Understanding the End-to-End Ocean Forecasting System

      Explore the core components of the end-to-end ocean forecasting system - data processing, data assimilation, and numerical modelling - and how they work together to produce reliable ocean forecasts.

    • The Virtuous Loop in Ocean Forecasting Systems

      Explore how an ocean forecasting system becomes a continuously improving loop - through data management, FAIR principles, tools, standards, and validation - and apply it to real societal cases in two hands-on exercises.

    • Ocean forecasting in action: services and decision-making

      See the end-to-end system at work in real operational services around the world - from Copernicus to African forecasting platforms - and find one that matters in your own region.

  • Week 2

    Fundamentals of ocean dynamics

    • Introduction to Ocean Dynamics

      Discover why the ocean moves and why it matters for forecasting. Check what you already know, then take your first look at the forces, energy, and scales that set the ocean in motion.

    • Forces Governing Oceanic Motion

      Meet the forces that set the ocean moving - gravity, pressure gradients, friction, and the Coriolis effect - and see how they combine into the equations that describe ocean motion.

    • Geostrophic Balance

      Discover the balance behind most large-scale ocean currents: how the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces settle into geostrophic balance, and how sea level maps reveal the currents beneath.

    • Ekman Balance and Wind-Driven Circulation

      See how the wind drives the ocean - from the surface Ekman spiral to coastal and equatorial upwelling, and the great wind-driven gyres that shape circulation across entire ocean basins.

    • Ocean Waves

      From waves breaking on the beach to the physics beneath them - discover how ocean surface waves form, how they travel and disperse, and why they grow and break as they approach the shore.

    • Geophysical Waves

      Zoom out from surf to planetary scale. Meet the vast, slow waves shaped by the Earth's rotation and ocean layering - inertial, Kelvin, Rossby, and internal waves - and the role they play in ocean variability.

    • From Astronomical Forcing to Wave Response.

      Discover what really drives the tides - the pull of the Moon and Sun - and how the ocean responds. From spring and neap tides to why some coasts have huge tidal ranges and others almost none.

  • Week 3

    Introduction to numerical ocean models

    • What Is an Ocean Model?

      Meet the computational heart of ocean forecasting. Discover what a numerical ocean model actually is, check what you remember from the physics, and take your first look at how the ocean is turned into a model.

    • Why Do We Need Numerical Ocean Models?

      If observations already measure the ocean, why build models at all? Discover the role numerical models play in prediction - filling the gaps observations leave, and letting us see the ocean's future state.

    • Anatomy of an Ocean Model

      Open up the model and look inside. Discover the building blocks of a numerical ocean model - its grids, physics, forcing, and boundary conditions - and how they fit together to simulate the sea.

    • Spatial and Temporal Resolution

      How fine is fine enough? Explore what resolution means in space and time, why it decides which ocean features a model can see, and the trade-off between detail and computational cost that every modeller must weigh.

    • Parameterization and Model Limitations

      No model can capture everything. Discover how ocean models represent the processes too small to simulate directly - through parameterization - and learn where their limits lie and why every forecast carries uncertainty.

    • Overview of Operational and Research Ocean Models

      Meet the models used in the real world. Survey the major operational and research ocean models - NEMO, HYCOM, ROMS, CROCO and more - and learn how to choose the right one for the job, before pulling the whole week together.

  • Week 4

    Ocean observations and data assimilation

    • Why Do We Observe the Ocean?

      The real ocean is the ultimate test of any forecast. Discover why we observe the sea at all, check what you recall from modelling, and see how observations keep forecasts anchored to reality.

    • Overview of Ocean Observing Systems

      Meet the instruments that watch the ocean - satellites in orbit and floats, buoys, and moorings in the water - and map which platform measures what, and where.

    • Satellite and In-situ Observations: Complementarity and Limitations

      No single system sees everything. Explore the strengths and blind spots of satellite and in-situ observations, and why the two are far more powerful together than apart.

    • What Is Data Assimilation?

      How does the real ocean get into a model? Discover data assimilation - the art of blending observations with model physics to build the best possible picture of the sea, no maths required.

    • How Observations Improve Ocean Forecasts

      Follow observations through the forecasting system - from collection to model correction - and discover what happens when data is missing, biased, or sparse.

    • Validation and Quality Control in Ocean Forecasting

      How do we know a forecast can be trusted? Discover how observations are quality-controlled and forecasts validated, then reflect on why data-sparse regions need every observation they can get.

  • Week 5

    Upstream data sources for ocean forecasting

    • What Are Upstream Data Sources in Ocean Forecasting?

      Every forecast begins with data flowing in. Discover what "upstream data" means, check what you recall from Module 4, and see where a forecast's inputs actually come from.

    • Global Ocean Data Providers for Forecasting Systems

      Who supplies the world's ocean data? Meet the major international services that feed operational forecasting, and see how their products fit into the forecasting chain.

    • Copernicus Marine Service Products for Ocean Forecasting

      Explore the backbone of European ocean data. Discover the observations, reanalyses, and model products the Copernicus Marine Service provides, and what each is for.

    • Atmospheric Forcing in Ocean Forecasting

      The atmosphere drives the ocean. Discover the winds, heat fluxes, and pressure data that force ocean models, and why the quality of that forcing shapes every forecast.

    • Regional and In-Situ Data Contributions

      Local data matters. Explore the national networks, moorings, tide gauges, and coastal observations that fill the gaps global products leave - especially in your own region.

    • Accessing Open-Access Ocean Data

      Find the data yourself. Learn to navigate the open-access portals that put ocean data in everyone's hands - freely, and without a single line of code.

    • Accessing Open-Access Atmospheric Data

      Find the data yourself. Learn to navigate the open-access portals that put atmospheric data in everyone's hands - freely, and without a single line of code.

  • Week 6

    Interpretation of ocean forecast outputs

    • What ocean forecast outputs are

      Discover what forecast literacy is and why it matters, check what you already know, then take your first step: understanding what ocean forecast outputs are and how they reach the people who use them.

    • The ocean variables behind the products

      Before reading forecast maps and charts, get to know the ocean variables they show - temperature, sea level, currents, salinity, waves, and more - and what each one tells you about the ocean.

    • Reading forecast maps

      Learn to read the most common forecast product of all - the map. Interpret colour bars, gradients, anomalies, and vectors, and practise pulling real meaning from spatial ocean data.

    • Reading time series and vertical profiles

      Move from space to time and depth. Learn to read ocean time series - trends, cycles, and variability - and vertical profiles that reveal the mixed layer, thermocline, and hidden subsurface structure.

    • Variability, anomalies, and uncertainty

      Move from reading forecasts to judging them. Understand natural variability and anomalies, learn why every forecast carries uncertainty, and see the common mistakes that trip up even careful readers.

    • Communicating forecast information

      Forecasts only matter when people can act on them. Learn to translate technical outputs into clear, responsible messages for non-expert users, and practise it on real African coastal scenarios.

  • Week 7

    Introduction to downstream applications of ocean forecasts

    • From Forecasts to Services: What Are Downstream Applications?

      This is where forecasts meet the real world. Discover what "downstream applications" are, check what you recall from interpreting forecasts, and see how science becomes societal benefit.

    • Understanding User Needs in Ocean Forecasting

      A forecast only matters if someone can use it. Discover who relies on ocean forecasts and why, and how understanding user needs shapes the products a service delivers.

    • Ocean Forecasting for Risk Reduction and Safety

      When the sea turns dangerous, forecasts save lives. Explore how early warning systems, maritime safety, and coastal hazard forecasting protect people and infrastructure.

    • Supporting Sustainable Fisheries and Coastal Management

      From fish to food security. Discover how ocean forecasts support sustainable fisheries, aquaculture, and the management of coasts and ecosystems that communities depend on.

    • Marine Pollution Monitoring and Environmental Response

      When a spill or bloom strikes, timing is everything. Explore how ocean forecasts guide pollution monitoring, oil-spill response, and the protection of water quality.

    • African and Regional Case Studies of Ocean Forecast Applications

      See it all come together in the real world. Meet real African and regional services where ocean forecasting delivers impact, then reflect, review, and complete the course.

When would you like to start?

Start straight away and join a global classroom of learners. If the course hasn’t started yet you’ll see the future date listed below.

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Learning on this course

On every step of the course you can meet other learners, share your ideas and join in with active discussions in the comments.

What will you achieve?

By the end of the course, you‘ll be able to...

  • Describe the architecture and purpose of an end-to-end ocean forecasting system, from observations to user applications
  • Explain the fundamental physical principles governing ocean circulation, including geostrophic balance, Ekman dynamics, tides, waves, and mesoscale variability
  • Explain how numerical ocean models are constructed, configured, and used in operational forecasting at global, regional, and coastal scales
  • Identify the major satellite and in-situ observing systems that supply ocean forecasting systems, and explain the role of data assimilation in improving forecast accuracy
  • Identify and access key upstream data sources including Copernicus Marine Service products and atmospheric forcing datasets
  • Interpret common ocean forecast outputs such as sea surface temperature maps, current fields, and sea level anomalies, and recognize their limitations
  • Explain how ocean forecast products are translated into downstream applications across sectors such as fisheries, maritime safety, and coastal risk management, with examples from Africa

Who is the course for?

This course is designed for students, early-career professionals, and practitioners in oceanography, marine science, meteorology, fisheries, coastal management, and maritime operations. No prior experience in ocean forecasting is required.

Who will you learn with?

I am a Research Scientist at Florida State University, specializing in operational oceanography and ocean forecasting. I also serve as the Scientific and Technical Lead of the OPERA Cap Dev activities

Engineer, Ph.D., and Senior Ocean Scientist with more than 15 years of experience in numerical modelling, physical oceanography, and operational ocean forecasting.

I am a professor and researcher at LEGOS, specialized in tropical ocean dynamics and salinity. I teach dynamical oceanography in different universities in France and Africa (Benin, Togo, Cabo Verde)

I am a Physical Oceanographer, actually Lecturer and Researcher at the National Advanced School of Maritime and Oceanic Sciences and Techniques of the University of Ebolowa (NASMOST-UEb) in Cameroon.

I am Dr. Frédéric Kpèdonou BONOU, Associate Professor (CAMES) in Physical Oceanography and Climatology at UNSTIM (National University of Sciences, Technologies, Engineering and Mathematics), Benin.

Physical and satellite oceanographer at Mississippi State University, specializing in operational oceanography, ocean dynamics, tropical climate, ocean salinity, and environmental data science.

I am a Postdoctoral Associate at University of Miami, studying mesoscale and submesoscale ocean dynamics, Agulhas leakage, mixing, and circulation using SWOT and in situ observations.

Who developed the course?

ICMPA - UNESCO Chair

As a UNESCO Chair, ICMPA carries a global mission: making advanced scientific knowledge accessible, inclusive and impactful , with Africa at its heart.

Founded at the University of Abomey-Calavi and officially recognised as a UNESCO Chair since April 2006, the International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA-UNESCO Chair) is a leading centre for advanced research and postgraduate education in West Africa.

Gulf of Guinea Ocean Sciences Summer School (GGOSSS)

The Gulf of Guinea Ocean Sciences Summer School (GGOSSS) is a regional capacity development initiative dedicated to building ocean science expertise across West and Central Africa, with a focus on the Gulf of Guinea. Bringing together early-career scientists, practitioners and educators from across the region, GGOSSS provides advanced training in operational oceanography, ocean forecasting and marine data applications through intensive schools, workshops and collaborative projects.

Université d'Abomey-Calavi

At the University of Abomey-Calavi, we believe that access to quality higher education is the most powerful driver of change, for individuals, communities and nations.

Established in 1970, UAC is the largest and most comprehensive public university in Benin, and one of the leading higher education institutions in West Africa.

Ocean Prediction DCC

The OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Centre (OceanPrediction DCC), hosted by Mercator Ocean international, is a cross-cutting structure working at the global scale to promote collaboration between Decade Actions and key actors to achieve a predicted Ocean in the framework of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, coordinated by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC/UNESCO).

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Endorsers and supporters

funded by

Funded by the EU logo

funded by

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What's included?

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