• University of Padova

An Invitation to Probability Theory

Build a solid foundation in probability theory up until the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

427 enrolled on this course

Artistic rendering of detailed measurement data with probability theory overlays

An Invitation to Probability Theory

427 enrolled on this course

  • 8 weeks

  • 5 hours per week

  • Digital certificate when eligible

  • Intermediate level

Find out more about how to join this course

  • Duration

    8 weeks
  • Weekly study

    5 hours
  • Languages

    English, Italiano, Español, Français, PortuguêsEnglish, Italiano
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Dive into the fundamentals of probability with practical insights

Probability theory underpins critical decisions in data science, finance, actuarial science, and beyond.

On this eight-week course from the University of Padova, you’ll explore key probability concepts, distributions, and theorems, equipping you with the skills to tackle uncertainty confidently.

Explore foundational concepts of probability

You’ll begin with the fundamentals of probability spaces, covering sample spaces, events, and probability measures.

Next, you’ll learn combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, and Bayes’ Theorem, applying these concepts to real-world scenarios, such as medical decision-making.

Master discrete and continuous random variables

You’ll dive into discrete and continuous random variables, unpacking their key properties, like distributions, expectations, and variances.

Through hands-on exercises, you’ll also apply key probability distributions such as Binomial, Poisson, and Gaussian.

Uncover advanced theorems and applications

Finally, you’ll move on to more advanced probability topics. You’ll break down joint densities, the Law of Large Numbers, and the Central Limit Theorem. Discover Monte Carlo methods for problem-solving and use limit theorems to make accurate predictions.

By the end of this course, you’ll walk away with some of the basic tools to apply probability theory to real-world challenges with confidence.

Skip to 0 minutes and 4 seconds There is a hidden language that governs chance,  uncertainty and predictions. It’s a language of   probability.

Skip to 0 minutes and 11 seconds Understanding this language is more  crucial today than ever: it’s at the heart of   the scientific discoveries, financial strategies  and technological innovations defining our era.  This course will guide you on a structured  journey into the heart of probability theory. 

Skip to 0 minutes and 31 seconds This course explores the theory of probability  starting with its foundational principles:   you will learn essential definitions theorems and  methods along with some practical applications.  The course introduces fundamental   ideas and concepts necessary to  understand more complex topics. For example we will explore the idea  of a probability space, the concept   of random variables and notable examples, the  computations of probabilities and expectations.   From there we move on to more advanced  results from the theory. These include  

Skip to 1 minute and 6 seconds two important limit theorems: the weak law of  large numbers and the central limit theorem. Probability theory is ever more relevant  in today’s world, for example in science  

Skip to 1 minute and 17 seconds and engineering: here it is used for modeling  uncertainty in physical systems it is applied in   signal processing and control theory especially  when dealing with noise and certain data.

Skip to 1 minute and 30 seconds Economics and finance: here it’s essential in risk  assessment and pricing of financial derivatives;   it helps in forecasting and decision  making under uncertainty, for example in   stock market predictions and insurance modeling.

Skip to 1 minute and 42 seconds It is important in data science and computing:   here it provides the foundation  for machine learning algorithms,   such as bias in inference and mark of chains. It  is applied in data analysis to handle uncertainty   missing data and randomness in large data sets.  It is also used for optimization problems,   such as finding the best solution under  uncertainty or using Monte Carlo simulations. This course provides a structured approach to  understanding key principles of the theory. By   the end of the course you will have developed  a solid grasp of the subject, and you’ll have   the fundamental tools to be able to understand its  relevance in different context. Enjoy the course!

Syllabus

  • Week 1

    Events and probabilites

    • Introduction to the course

      Setting up the stage! Presentations, aims and structure of the course.

    • Modeling a random experiment

      We provide a way to model an experiment with unknown outcome via a probability space.

    • Probability measures

      We assign a measure of the likelihood of an event via a function called a probability measure. To do this in a coherent way, the probability measure will have to satisfies certain axioms.

    • Combinatorial calculus and probability

      Exploration of combinatorial calculus and probability: dispositions, binomial coefficients, urn models, and Poker analysis

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 2

    Conditional probability and independence

    • Conditional probability and independence

      We explore updating probabilities conditionally on the occurrence of an event and introduce the concept of event independence.

    • Bayes Theorem and the law of total probability

      We explore the foundational concepts of Bayes' Theorem and the Law of Total Probability, tools central to probabilistic reasoning and inference.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 3

    Discrete random variables

    • Random variables and discrete density

      We provide a definition of random variables, focusing on those with at most countable possible values. For these we introduce the notion of discrete density.

    • Marginal and joint densities

      This section examines the concepts of marginal and joint densities. Joint density functions describe the probability distribution over multiple random variables simultaneously, capturing their interdependence.

    • Expectation of a random variable, variance and covariance

      This section introduces expectation, variance, and covariance. Expectation provides the average value of a random variable, variance quantifies its spread, and covariance measures the relationship between two random variables.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 4

    Notable families of random variables

    • Bernoulli and Binomial random variables

      Bernoulli random variables model a single trial with two outcomes, while Binomial random variables extend this to multiple independent trials.

    • Geometric random variables

      Geometric random variables model the number of trials needed to achieve the first success in a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials.

    • Poisson random variables

      Poisson random variables model the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, such as the number of calls you get in a day.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 5

    Continuous random variables

    • Continuous random variables

      We introduce continuous random variables and characterise them by their density function. We will see how to compute probabilities for this new class of random variables that can take uncountable many values.

    • Expectation of continuous random variables

      In this section, you will learn how to compute the expectations of continuous random variables, including those of functions of random variables. This will also enable you to calculate their variance.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 6

    Notable families of continuous random variables

    • Uniform

      The Uniform distribution models a random variable with equally likely outcomes over a specified range.

    • Exponential

      The Exponential distribution is a good model for waiting times, such as in a queue, or the serving times at the post office.

    • Gaussian

      The Gaussian (Normal) distribution describes a symmetric, bell-shaped probability distribution characterized by its mean and variance.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 7

    Random vectors of continuous random variables

    • Joint density, marginal density

      In this section we cover the concept of joint density and marginals of a continuous random vector. You will also learn some basics on how to handle double integrals.

    • Conditional density and conditional expectation

      In this section, we introduce the notion of conditional density also for continuous random variables, as well as the associated concept of conditional expectation.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

  • Week 8

    Limit theorems

    • Basic inequalities

      This sections covers some basic inequalities in probability theory: Markov's inequality, Chebyshev's inequality and Cauchy-Schwarz inequality.

    • Law of large numbers

      The Law of Large Numbers states that as the number of trials or observations increases, the sample mean of a random variable will converge to its expected value.

    • The Central limit theorem

      The Central Limit Theorem states that, for a large enough sample size, the distribution of the sample mean, properly recentred and rescaled, approaches a normal distribution.

    • Wrap-up

      Wrapping things up! Review your understanding with some quizzes and exercises!

When would you like to start?

Start straight away and join a global classroom of learners. If the course hasn’t started yet you’ll see the future date listed below.

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Learning on this course

On every step of the course you can meet other learners, share your ideas and join in with active discussions in the comments.

What will you achieve?

By the end of the course, you‘ll be able to...

  • Explain key concepts in probability theory such as probability spaces, sample spaces and probability density functions.
  • Explain the principles of conditional probability and event independence.
  • Calculate probabilities using combinatorial calculus the law of total probability
  • Calculate expected values, variances, and covariances for discrete and continuous random variables.
  • Apply the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers to approximate sums of independent random variables

Who is the course for?

This course is designed for professionals and learners eager to deepen their understanding of probability theory. Ideal for those in finance, actuarial science, data science, research, and academia, it also provides valuable preparation for advanced studies in related fields.

Who will you learn with?

Hi, I’m Alberto Chiarini, an Associate Professor at the University of Padova. My main area of research is probability theory, with a special interest in how it connects to statistical physics.

Hi,

I am Giovanni Conforti and I am an associate professor in Mathematics at the University of Padova. My main research interests lie in probability theory with focus on stochastic algorithms.

Who developed the course?

University of Padova

The University of Padova is one of Europe’s oldest and most prestigious seats of learning; it aims to provide its students with both professional training and a solid cultural background.

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Choose the best way to learn for you!

Best Value - learn more, save more!

Subscribe & save

$244.99 for a whole year

Automatically renews

Develop skills to further your career

  • Access to this course
  • Access to 1,000+ courses
  • Learn at your own pace
  • Discuss your learning in comments
  • Tests to boost your learning
  • Digital certificate when you're eligible

Cancel for free anytime

Buy this course

$109/one-off payment

Fulfill your current learning need

  • Access to this course
  • Learn at your own pace
  • Discuss your learning in comments
  • Tests to boost your learning
  • Printed and digital certificate when you’re eligible

Start learning today

Free

Try this course - with limits

  • Limited to 8 weeks

Find out more about certificates, Unlimited or buying a course (Upgrades)

Sale price available until 2 November 2026 at 23:59 (UTC). T&Cs apply.

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Sale price available until 2 November 2026 at 23:59 (UTC). T&Cs apply.

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