Nicholas Jewell on quantifying uncertainty

We have just expended a fair amount of energy learning about the quantification of uncertainty surrounding sample survey-based estimates of violent war deaths. So perhaps some of us are not currently in the best frame of mind to receive Nicholas Jewell’s message that there is still more uncertainty that our methods do not account for. But receive it we must.

You may recall that I made the same point back in step 2.4, saying that I mentally adjust all error margins by doubling their width. This is an arbitrary rule of thumb but it does suggest the importance that I attach to Nicholas’ main point in this clip.