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Projecting Lift

Watch Raj Venkatesan explain how to project lift from a small campaign to the national level and across the selling season.
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Okay. I didn’t have the squash for the last session, because I thought by now, you guys are okay with this much numbers. But now, we gotta get through the rest, and I think we gotta remind ourselves that we have to eat our vegetables here. Let’s walk through this, we’re going to be good for that. So the next thing to do is to see how much left can be expected in terms of units sold of Very Spaghetti from this TV ads. The thing to remember that I have not mentioned yet, is that while the ads ran in June and July, the national campaign is going to happen in December. So the test, the experiment was done in June and July.
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But the national campaign is going to happen in December, which is the peak holiday season. Keep that in mind, because that has important implications. But we need to also consider that when we are projecting the lift in Arizona to the national level. So, what are the steps that we need to do to project the sales left in Arizona to the national level? So, the first things to consider is we are at Arizona and that’s the 267% left. The next thing to do, is to take from Arizona test stores within the chain to the chain level of all the stores in Arizona. From there, we gotta go to the national level number of stores in the entire country in that chain.
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Then all retail across all chains. And then from there, we have to project it to the selling season. So we have the step by step projections that we need to do to take the sales in Arizona in a small number of stores, then a particular chain, to the chain level within Arizona, to the national chain level, to the entire retail across all the chains, and then to the selling season, projecting the lift from June and July to the holiday season. So these are the steps in the projection. I’m just showing you the steps here conceptually.
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Now, we’re going to take these and apply the numbers that we have and see how much in unit sales can Very Spaghetti expect from a TV advertising campaign in December.

Learn the conceptual framework for projecting lift from a test market across geographies and over time.

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