John McCaskill
Individual and organizational decision making in complex and uncertain conditions is an area of my research interest. I am interested in experiencing how this course course presents this topic.
Location Dallas, Texas, USA
Activity
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John McCaskill made a comment
The weather we all experience is due to the uneven heating of the earth's surface by the sun. We can make short term predictions but are miserably inept at long term weather forecasts. The world economy is very similar; the cycle of cause and effect have large temporal and spatial separations that prevent us from seeing the true linkages. This is the essence...
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Indeed - and all under the umbrella concept of sustainability!
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I bring rain by washing my car: it never seems to fail!
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John McCaskill made a comment
I think modern medicine is a misnomer. In the early 20th century, you were as likely to be harmed by a physician as helped. I would think the critical component is property ownership in the form of individual property rights. Democracy is dependant upon it...
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John McCaskill made a comment
A farmer that over-grazes the common highland meadow of a village at the expense of the other farmers and himself because it causes the meadow ecosystem to collapse (the classic 'tragedy of the commons). To avoid the problem, the village enforces rules through collective agreement to punish over users (defectors).
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John McCaskill made a comment
Eleanor Ostrom's book "Governing the Commons" parallels the concepts presented in this video. She provides several examples of cooperative behaviors being enforced by social norms. An interesting read.
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John McCaskill made a comment
Axelrod’s (6) premise that “models that aim to explore fundamental processes should be judged by their fruitfulness, not by their accuracy” is very much to the point. We are trying to explore the possibilities presented by adaptive rather than rational agents. If we attempt to input all of the data (variables) possible in our model, we stand a very good chance...
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John McCaskill made a comment
It has been mentioned before but an increase in biodiversity increase the stability of the overall ecosystem. Conversely, as species die off or biodiversity is reduced (modern agriculture) the system becomes more susceptible both endogenously and to exogenous shocks.
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John McCaskill made a comment
I believe that social and economic systems are predictable to a limited degree but only during temporary periods of equlibrium. Prigogine in Physicas, Eldredge and Gould in biology and others have described 'punctuated equilibria' in which events oscillate about an equlibrium until a force, internal or external to the system, causes the deep structures of the...
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John McCaskill made a comment
Introducing a product line extention in an existing product line. I could run forecasts of consumer acceptance, market share, and cannibilization of our existing products, but all of these activities were conducted under uncertainty. I was making educated guesses but there was no way to predict the future with pinpoint accuracy.
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An anthropologist studying a primitive tribe.
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Taleb refers to this as "Causal Opacity" in his book Antifragile...