Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World

Syllabus

• Week 1

  Complexity & uncertainty

  • Introduction to decision making in a complex and uncertain world

    This activity introduces the FutureLearn course: decision making in a complex and uncertain world.

  • Complexity

    This activity introduces the notion of complexity.

  • Social complexity

    Complex systems exist in nature, but also in society. This activity focuses on the latter.

  • Characteristics of complex systems

    This activity discusses some of the shared characteristics of all complex systems.

  • Uncertainty & risk

    This activity deals with uncertainty. It explains the difference between risk and uncertainty and provides distinct methods for dealing with both uncertainty and risk.

  • Dealing with uncertainty

    This activity looks at mechanisms which enable dealing with uncertainty. It will be explained what these mechanisms are and how to use them.

  • Uncertainty in science and the economy

    You have learnt about what risk and uncertainty is and about the mechanisms to deal with it. Now, the debate continues on implications and relevance of uncertainty in science and the economy.

  • Wrapping up Week 1

    This activity wraps up Week 1

• Week 2

  Emergence & networks

  • Introducing emergent behaviour, graph theory and networks

    This video introduces Week 2 of the course.

  • Introduction to emergence

    This activity gives you an introduction to emergence and emergent behavior.

  • Networks & graph theory

    This activity introduces the notion of networks. It then introduces graph theory as a tool to study these networks.

  • Random & scale-free networks

    This activity gives you a quick overview of the different types of networks that can exist.

  • Stability of networks

    This activity explores the stability of networks. What makes a network stable of fragile?

  • Wrapping up Week 2

    This activity wraps up Week 2

• Week 3

  Agent based modelling

  • Introducing agent-based modelling

    This activity introduces Week 3 of the course.

  • Principles of agent-based modelling

    This activity introduces the principles of agent-based modelling. A technique that we can use to study and simulate complex systems. This allows scientists and decision makers to reduce complexity.

  • Why make an agent-based model?

    This activity explores why scientists might want to create an agent-based model.

  • Modelling social complexity

    This activity explores whether or not agent-based models can be used to model more complex social systems.

  • Possibilities for agent-based models

    We have highlighted agent-based models that decision makers and scientists can use as a tool for understanding complex systems. In this activity, we will highlight possible real-world applications of agent-based models.

  • Wrapping up Week 3

    This activity wraps up Week 3.

• Week 4

  Evolutionary dynamics

  • Introducing evolutionary dynamics

    This activity introduces the fourth week of the course.

  • Evolutionary dynamics

    This activity introduces evolution in a complex and uncertain world

  • Social evolution

    This activity introduces social evolution in a complex world.

  • Wrapping up Week 4

    This activity wraps up Week 4.

• Week 5

  Self-organisation & history

  • Introducing self-organisation, cellular automata and history

    This activity introduces Week 5 of the course.

  • Cellular automata to study social self-organisation

    This activity uses cellular automata models to study social self-organisation.

  • Self-organisation of voting behaviour

    This activity expands on the concepts learned on cellular automata modelling and self-organisation. It applies these concepts to the clustering patterns in voting behaviour..

  • Complexity and uncertainty in history

    This activity shows how we can see the previously introduced concepts of complexity and uncertainty in history.

  • Wrapping up Week 5

    This activity wraps up Week 5.

• Week 6

  Individual decision making & entrepreneurship

  • Introducing individual decision making and entrepreneurship

    This activity introduces Week 6 of the course.

  • Decisions in a complex and uncertain world

    This activity describes how people make decisions under complexity and uncertainty

  • The role of entrepreneurs in a complex and uncertain world

    This activity describes how Austrian economists view the role of entrepreneurs in our complex and uncertain world.

  • How entrepreneurs profit from uncertainty

    This activity introduces how entrepreneurship flourish in a complex and uncertain world.

  • How social entrepreneurs solve complex social problems

    This activity introduces the concept of social entrepreneurship

  • Wrapping up Week 6

    This activity wraps up Week 6

• Week 7

  Case study: Financial crisis & city development

  • Introducing two case studies

    This activity introduces Week 7

  • Case study 1: Financial uncertainty

    Now, let us look at a specific example of a complex system, the financial system. Where there is a lot of uncertainty about its behavior, but also some patterns. Much like the US economy before 2007.

  • Case study 2: Urban complexity

    This activity explores how all of the previously learned lessons can be applied to a real world entity: the City.

  • End of course case study

    This is it. You can practice all you have learned in a concrete case study of your choice. Either write about a financial crisis or about city development.

  • Concluding the course

    This activity concludes our course on decisions in a complex and uncertain world.

Who will you learn with?