Welcome to week 1

This week, we lay the foundations for everything you will learn throughout MOOC Set 1, by exploring what ocean forecasting is, why it matters, and how it has evolved into the systems we rely on today.

We begin by asking what ocean forecasting actually is and why it matters. We will look at operational oceanography as a discipline — combining observations, numerical models, and data assimilation — and explore the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, which frames international cooperation around “the science we need for the ocean we want.”

We then turn to why we need ocean forecasting systems in the first place. From coastal flooding and marine heatwaves to oil spills and harmful algal blooms, we will see how ocean forecasts help the Blue Economy move from reactive responses to proactive, anticipatory management.

From there, we trace a brief history of ocean observations and forecasting systems — from ancient maritime navigation to the Argo programme and today’s Digital Twin Ocean — showing how decades of progress in science, technology, and international collaboration brought us to where we are now.

We then unpack the end-to-end ocean forecasting system itself, examining how data processing, data assimilation, and numerical models work together to produce the ocean information services rely on.

This leads us to the virtuous loop that connects observations, models, data management, and user feedback into a continuously improving system — and finally to how ocean forecasting supports real-world services and decision-making, from policy to practitioners to citizens.

By the end of this week, you will understand the fundamentals of operational oceanography and the end-to-end ocean forecasting system, and you will be able to explain why ocean forecasting matters for society and the Blue Economy.

A complete reference document covering all of Week 1 is available to download below — use it alongside the course steps for extra detail, definitions, and references.