From ocean observations to forecasting systems: a brief history

Today’s operational ocean forecasting systems are the result of decades of progress in ocean science, observations, technology, computing, and international collaboration. In this step, we trace a timeline showing how operational oceanography has evolved over time, thanks to the scientific method and advances in science and technology.

Ancient maritime navigation

Long before modern science, ancient maritime civilisations such as the Phoenicians, Greeks, Arabs, Vikings, and Polynesians were known for their remarkable shipbuilding and navigational skills. The Phoenicians became renowned for their advanced shipbuilding techniques and trade networks spanning from Cyprus to the Atlantic coast. The Greeks used the trireme — a galley with three rows of oars — for both war and commerce. The Vikings undertook long voyages across the North Atlantic, while the Polynesians are credited with the legendary circumnavigation of the globe. These civilisations not only navigated the seas, they established vast trade networks that connected continents and influenced cultures worldwide.

The foundations of physical oceanography (17th–19th century)

The scientific study of the ocean began to take shape between the 17th and 19th centuries, through the pioneering work of several key figures:

• Gerardus Mercator (1512–1594) was a Flemish cartographer whose most important innovation was a map projection — later known as the Mercator projection — on which parallels and meridians are rendered as straight lines, producing an accurate ratio of latitude to longitude at any point. He also introduced the term “atlas” for a collection of maps.
• Luigi Marsili (1658–1730) was an Italian nobleman, soldier, diplomat, and pioneering natural scientist, credited as a founding father of modern oceanography and geomorphological surveying. Marsili made the first direct measurements of sea-water density at surprising accuracy, as well as the currents in the Bosphorus, and observed current reversal at depth (Pinardi et al., 2018).
• The HMS Challenger Expedition was a groundbreaking scientific voyage that laid the foundation for modern oceanography, exploring the depths of the oceans and making significant discoveries between 1872 and 1876.

The expansion of observation networks (early 20th century)

The early 20th century saw a major expansion of ocean observation networks. Particular classes of ocean measurement — including shipboard hydrography, moorings, and drifting floats — developed steadily over this period, each contributing new discoveries and a deeper dynamical understanding of how the ocean behaves (Davis et al., 2019).

Remote sensing and the view from space

The development of ocean remote sensing technologies began in the 1970s, though the idea of observing the ocean from space was first conceived in the late 1960s. The first global view of the ocean from space revealed an expanse and complexity that had perplexed and inspired oceanographers ever since — and has had a profound impact on how we study the ocean in relation to weather and climate over the past 50 years (Fu et al., 2019).

The Argo programme (1990s)

A major push to observe the ocean came in the 1990s with the launch of the Argo programme. Argo collects information from inside the ocean using a fleet of robotic instruments — floats — that drift with ocean currents and move up and down between the surface and a mid-water level. Each float spends almost all of its life below the surface.

The name Argo was chosen because the array of floats works in partnership with the Jason earth observing satellites, which measure the shape of the ocean surface (in Greek mythology, Jason sailed on his ship Argo in search of the golden fleece). Argo grew out of the 1990s WOCE project, which set out to collect an unprecedented set of ocean observations, including data on ocean currents at around 1000 metres depth throughout the world’s oceans. To achieve this, Russ Davis from Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Doug Webb of Webb Research Corporation developed the Autonomous Lagrangian Circulation Explorer (ALACE) — the technology that would evolve into the modern Argo float.

From observing to forecasting

Ocean observations help us understand the present and past state of the ocean, but society increasingly needs forecasting systems to anticipate future ocean conditions and hazards. The 1990s marked a major milestone in this transition, with the establishment of operational forecasting centres, the development of global observing systems, and increasing international coordination. This period included the first documented mesoscale ocean prediction for the deep ocean, achieved through the work of Professor Robinson at Harvard University (Pinardi et al., 2017).

Initiatives such as GOOS and EuroGOOS, together with satellite oceanography programmes and forecasting centres, strongly advanced prediction capabilities worldwide — opening a new era from science to service, capable of delivering added-value ocean data to users seeking to understand sea state conditions in a changing climate.

Towards the Digital Twin Ocean

Modern oceanography is now building on consolidated practices and standards to create an interactive, science-based digital replica of the ocean — helping policymakers, researchers, businesses, and citizens better understand, protect, and sustainably manage marine environments. This is known as the Digital Twin Ocean.

In Europe, for example, EDITO (European Digital Twin Ocean) offers new capacities to make ocean knowledge available to all, empowering decision makers, researchers, innovators, and citizens to access ocean insights and tools, grow shared knowledge, and act for the future. EDITO uses real-time and historical data to represent the past and present, and numerical models to simulate possible future scenarios — helping us answer questions about what has happened, what is happening now, and what might happen next, with an unparalleled level of detail and accuracy.

Key takeaways

• Ancient maritime civilisations developed remarkable navigational skills long before the scientific study of the ocean began
• The foundations of physical oceanography were laid between the 17th and 19th centuries, through figures such as Mercator, Marsili, and the HMS Challenger Expedition
• Observation networks expanded significantly in the early 20th century, followed by the rise of satellite remote sensing in the 1970s
• The Argo programme, launched in the 1990s, transformed our ability to observe the ocean’s interior using autonomous floats
• The 1990s also marked the emergence of operational forecasting centres and global observing systems, shifting the field from observation alone to genuine prediction
• Today, the Digital Twin Ocean — exemplified by Europe’s EDITO initiative — represents the latest step in this evolution, combining real-time data and numerical models to understand the past, present, and future of the ocean

References

• Pinardi, N., Özsoy, E., Latif, M. A., Moroni, F., Grandi, A., Manzella, G., De Strobel, F., and Lyubartsev, V. (2018). Measuring the sea: Marsili’s oceanographic cruise (1679–80) and the roots of oceanography. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 48(4), 845–860. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-17-0168.1
• Davis, R. E., et al. (2019). 100 years of progress in ocean observing systems. Meteorological Monographs, 59, 3.1–3.46. https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0014.1
• Fu, L.-L., et al. (2019). 50 years of satellite remote sensing of the ocean. Meteorological Monographs, 59, 5.1–5.46. https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0010.1
• Pinardi, N., Cavaleri, L., Coppini, G., De Mey, P., Fratianni, C., Huthnance, J., Lermusiaux, P. F. J., Navarra, A., Preller, R., and Tibaldi, S. (2017). From weather to ocean predictions: an historical viewpoint. Journal of Marine Research, 75(3), 103–159.