Ocean forecasting in action, around the world

Throughout this course you have followed the ocean forecasting system as a virtuous loop – from observations, through models and data assimilation, to products, and back again through validation and user feedback. In this final lesson we watch that loop already turning in the real world, in operational services that turn ocean data into decisions people rely on every day. Ocean forecasting transforms ocean data into actionable information that supports safer, smarter, and more sustainable decisions. Several of the examples below come from Africa, reflecting the regional focus of the OPERA project.

The Copernicus Marine Service

The Copernicus Marine Service is the marine component of the European Union’s Copernicus programme. It provides free, open-access, science-based information on the state of the ocean – the physical ocean (Blue Ocean), sea ice (White Ocean), and biogeochemistry (Green Ocean) – at both global and regional scales. Implemented by Mercator Ocean International, it supports EU policy and a wide range of applications, from maritime safety and pollution tracking to climate monitoring and the sustainable use of marine resources. For many downstream services worldwide, Copernicus Marine is the upstream backbone.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS)

SAWS is South Africa’s national meteorological authority, and its mandate reaches across the marine environment. It issues marine forecasts and warnings for the waters around South Africa – covering waves, wind, and coastal conditions – that support navigation, maritime safety, and coastal communities in a region where two major current systems, the Agulhas and the Benguela, meet.

GMES & Africa: regional services from coast to coast

Much of Africa’s operational marine capacity is being built through GMES & Africa (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security and Africa), a programme co-funded by the African Union Commission and the European Union. Two consortia deliver its marine and coastal services:

• North and West Africa (MarCNoWA). Led by the University of Ghana’s Regional Marine Centre, MarCNoWA delivers Earth-observation-based marine and coastal services to 18 coastal countries. It addresses regional challenges such as illegal fishing, oil pollution, safety at sea, and coastal erosion – with services including potential fishing zone charts and oil-spill and vessel-traffic monitoring.
• East Africa and the Indian Ocean. Regional ocean forecasts for East Africa are delivered through the southern and eastern consortium, whose partners include the Mauritius Oceanography Institute and research institutes across the western Indian Ocean, providing services for fisheries, coastal monitoring, and safety at sea.

MOTHY: drift forecasting for pollution and rescue

MOTHY is an operational drift-modelling system that supports responses to accidental marine pollution and to search-and-rescue operations. It is built around a Lagrangian model – one that can also run backwards in time, to trace where something drifted from – and it predicts the drift of three kinds of object: substances that spread like a slick, such as oil; cargo containers lost at sea; and search-and-rescue targets, such as people or vessels in distress. Its 3D version additionally accounts for vertical movement driven by buoyancy and turbulence.

ABALOBI: forecasting in the hands of fishers

ABALOBI – the word means “fisher” in isiXhosa – is a platform that puts ocean information directly into the hands of small-scale fishing communities through mobile technology. Alongside tools for logging catches and reaching markets, it gives fishers access to weather and sea-condition information, helping them decide when it is safe to go out and supporting the sustainability of their livelihoods. It is a clear example of the loop closing at the level of the individual user.

Digital Earth Africa

Digital Earth Africa provides free, open access to satellite Earth-observation data and ready-to-use analysis tools for the entire continent. By turning decades of satellite data into accessible information – including coastal-change and water-quality products – it helps governments, researchers, and businesses across Africa monitor and manage their marine and coastal environments.

Looking ahead

Ocean forecasting keeps evolving. New observations enable new developments in prediction, which benefit in turn from growing computational resources and from advances in artificial intelligence and big-data techniques – allowing more accurate, more tailored, and more interoperable information. Ensuring data standardisation and quality control remains central to improving global ocean prediction. The next generation of downstream services will help deliver the transformative ocean science solutions at the heart of the UN Decade of Ocean Science – and the field is increasingly moving towards the Digital Twin of the Ocean: a continuous path from data, to products, to societal benefit. For further information, please refer to Alvarez Fanjul et al. (2022), Cirano et al. (2025), and Veitch et al. (2025).

Key takeaways

• Operational services turn the forecasting loop into real decisions – for safety, sustainability, and the Blue Economy
• The Copernicus Marine Service provides open, science-based ocean information that underpins services worldwide
• Across Africa, services such as SAWS, MarCNoWA, the East Africa regional systems, MOTHY, ABALOBI, and Digital Earth Africa meet regional needs – from artisanal fishing to pollution response
• The future lies in better observations, AI and big data, strong data standards, and the emerging Digital Twin of the Ocean

References

• Alvarez Fanjul, E., Ciliberti, S., and Bahurel, P. (Eds.) (2022). Implementing Operational Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Systems. IOC-UNESCO, GOOS Report No. 275. Available at: https://www.unoceanprediction.org/en/resources/etoofs-guide
• Cirano, M., Alvarez-Fanjul, E., Capet, A., et al. (2025). A description of existing operational ocean forecasting services around the globe. State of the Planet, 5-opsr, 5. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025
• Veitch, J., Alvarez-Fanjul, E., Capet, A., et al. (2025). A description of ocean forecasting applications around the globe. State of the Planet, 5-opsr, 6. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025