Understanding User Needs in Ocean Forecasting

The first lecture established that a forecast only matters when it leads to action. This one, again with Ebenezer Nyadjro, puts the people who take that action at the centre: the users. Because different users make different decisions, they need different things – and understanding that is the foundation of good service design.

The lecture works through:

• Why user needs matter – they determine what information you provide, when you deliver it, the spatial and temporal scales required, and how you communicate it. The core principle: a forecast is only useful if it meets the needs of its users
• Who uses ocean forecasts – a wide range of sectors: transportation and shipping, fisheries, oil and gas, biotechnology, recreation, aquaculture, deep-sea mining, and offshore renewable energy. One forecast can serve many of them – but each grabs it for a different purpose
• Different users, different needs – a fisher wants the best fishing locations, times, and safe routes; a port authority manages vessel traffic; emergency services need drift predictions for rescue and spill response. A single forecast rarely fits everyone
• Putting the user at the centre – good service design starts from the user and asks: what decision do they need to make? Which variables? What forecast horizon (hourly, 3-day, seasonal)? What spatial resolution (local, national, regional)? How often must it update? A 30-minute update suits a fast storm; an hourly forecast is overkill for a seasonal planting decision
• The essentials: timeliness, accuracy, and accessibility – a forecast that arrives too late, is inaccurate, or can’t be reached is useless. It must also be interpretable – the lecture shows a Ghana Meteorological service product using red/yellow/green colours and highlighted key text so anyone can grasp it at a glance
• The FAIR principles – data should be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable
• Communicating uncertainty and quality – never present a forecast as perfect. Users need to know its confidence, limitations, and the telltale signs to watch for – as Copernicus does by publishing quality metrics alongside its data
• User engagement and outreach – the heart of the lecture: don’t just hand over a product from on high. Engage users, learn their needs (including valuable indigenous knowledge), build the product with them, then go back for feedback – a continuous cycle that improves the service and, crucially, earns trust. And weather and climate services only work when people trust them
• African examples and the bigger picture – fisheries advisories, flood warnings, maritime safety, and pollution tracking across Africa, all contributing to SDG 14 (Life Below Water), the blue economy, and the UN Ocean Decade

The takeaway that closes the lecture: ocean forecasting services never stop developing – they grow by continuously engaging users, producing what they actually need, delivering it timely and accessibly, communicating it clearly, and being honest about uncertainty. The next lecture turns to one of the most vital applications: risk reduction and safety.