Skip to 0 minutes and 17 seconds The urgency of the change, if we look at the Medea’s scenarios, but not only in the Medea scenarios, in the SSP scenarios we have… The SSP has five scenarios and three of them are very bad, are very very bad, and those three very very bad scenarios are related to the “Business as usual”, what we call “Business as usual” scenario. So the transition can’t wait, can’t wait 10 years, 20 years more. If we wait 10 or 20 years more we will be late. If we don’t do that, we will face problems in the society related to the energy production in goods and services production, but we will be less able to adapt to the climate change issues that we cannot avoid.
Skip to 1 minute and 13 seconds So if we don’t make the changes, the society will be less resilient, and we will be more affected by the climate change effects. So it’s for that reason that it’s very urgent to be aware of the problem and to politically, economically, and technically, act as soon as possible.
Skip to 1 minute and 37 seconds One is the social awareness. We cannot make changes with out telling the people what it’s happening. Policy should be addressed to inform the population what are the main problems that we need to face and as soon as the population realizes what are the main problems, then some policies that will require some effort from the society can be accepted.
Skip to 2 minutes and 11 seconds So what we should explain to the people is that we have facts and based on those facts, we need to design the policies. And the facts are telling us two big things. One, in the near future we will face problems like sea level rise and changes in temperature. And the second problem, we will have energy security problems because we rely in non-renewable energy sources. The two big issues will affect the economic system. So the mainstream and the media should inform with more detail, and warn the people about what are the necessities and the urgencies that we have.
Skip to 3 minutes and 5 seconds It’s not the same oil, that light tight oil is not the same as the crude oil. So that means that it needs transformation, which requires energy. And the other is the technical energy requirement for the technical exploitation of that oil, which goes to what is called the EROI, Energy Return On Energy Investment. So the EROI for non-conventional oil is lower than the EROI of the conventional oil, the crude oil, which means that the energy that finally the society gets from that oil is lower than from the crude oil.
Skip to 3 minutes and 46 seconds So instead of focusing on the amount of barrels produced per year or per day, we should just consider what is the amount of net energy that the society requires from the oil. So the Paris Agreement are reached because there is a general consensus in the academia that we can’t afford to extract all the oil that it’s underground and burn it because that will imply a big disaster in the world. That is a general consensus from the academia to the politicians. What is not general consensus, because there are different discussions about that, it’s about peak oil and limitation of resources and when the peak will be reached.
Skip to 4 minutes and 38 seconds But what it is general consensus is that we can’t afford whatever is the peak oil or not, whatever is a general technical improvement under means of extraction, exploration and exploitation of the fossil fuels. We can’t afford to keep burning the fossil fuels. We need fossil fuels to develop and implement the renewable energy sources because our system is dependent on that fossil fuels, so we need some time period in that shifting, in that transition, to keep using fossil fuels, to keep the system, and to change the system to renewable energy sources. Now the discussion is in that field, in that area.
Skip to 5 minutes and 24 seconds What we need to do and how the system should be changed to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
Meet the expert: The pace of change and the urgency for transition
Find in this video the second part of the interview with Jordi Solé, researcher at the Institut de Ciències del Mar (Institut of Marine Sciences) of Catalonia and project leader of MEDEAS. In this video he will present three scenarios on the pace of climate change.