Tim Menkveld
Teaching Assistant for the MOOC 'Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World'
Location Groningen, The Netherlands
Activity
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There is no deadline :)
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There are other interesting courses out there. I recommend taking a look at https://www.complexityexplorer.org/
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It's Professor now :-)
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That book is still on my shelve :(
Does he apply the same definition of fragility as professor Bezemer? -
Tim Menkveld replied to Will Merrow-Smith
Final week! Hope you will enjoy it! Congrats to all for making it this far already :) great job!
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Tim Menkveld replied to Andrew Kahr
Unfortunately the article is behind a paywall :(
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That is the tool used to test self-awareness. You can choose any topic of course :) I hope it helps to make you more aware of your implicit cognitive attitude
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Once your at it.. right?
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This is better...
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Thanks for noting this, now other students won't have to deal with this annoyance ;)
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Here's the tool (after you click 'I wish to proceed'):
https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/takeatest.html -
Thanks for pointing this out.
As part of updating this course we divided to what is now Week 3 & Week 4 - you can imagine that both together was a lot of work for one week (although we expanded the weeks a bit). Here and there we come across some small reminders of how it used to be ;)
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Tim Menkveld replied to Andrew Kahr
Apparently they start to sell the bonds. Not sure about the creditability of this source but it states that the US debt to China is 1.2 trillion, which is similar to what I remember. (https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355)
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from the article on the following steps: To be sure: “local” does here not necessarily only mean “local” in geographical space. You can also think of a socio-demographic space, for example with the two dimensions age and educational level. Music tastes, for example, have been found to be clustered in age groups and in educational levels.
I think this also... -
Good (and sad) point.
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Tim Menkveld replied to James Daniel Esagala
Problem is; I could do 'my' work at any time - but I if I am dependent on others for meetings or whatever, they also need to be available at the same time. Makes it worse when working in a global organisation when there's practically only a few hours that you could 'meet'..
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Tim Menkveld replied to Andrew Kahr
Adding to J Doyle's point; China is becoming more and more reliable on other countries, not just on export but China have also been selling them bonds (a lot!). This adds to a larger reliability on foreign economies as well.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Graeme Barden
Congrats :)
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Tim Menkveld replied to Roger Fagg
Don't give up :) You don't have to finish the course in 7 Weeks time -it will remain open afterwards and by experience more people will be finishing after 7 weeks.
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Dan Ariely has some cool examples in this TED video:
https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_asks_are_we_in_control_of_our_own_decisions?language=nl#t-654530
(11:06)He also wrote a book: predictably irrational, which covers more of this subject.
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There are many biases en heuristics. Being aware that we have them already helps :) Week 6 will go deeper into this, how they influence our decision making and how we can deal with them.
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Agents would be acting on a simple set of rules, which we could program to be different (according to different rules we would come up with). Next to the bars we can adjust in the frontend of the model, we could also change the script of the agent based model - the back end part.
E.g. agents are never allowed to make a left turn. That would be interesting I... -
Tim Menkveld replied to Dave Hall
Maybe the ideas have been planted in your mind and you have been recognising bits and pieces of the characteristics of complex systems in your life. Just wandering off in thoughts, nice to see you back anyways :)
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Tim Menkveld replied to Graeme Barden
Before you move to Week 3, there is a test waiting for you. Good luck! ;)
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Haha, inappropriately named indeed. Just as 'Complexity science'- the science has a quite well defined idea of what complex systems are even though we use the word complex often in everyday life- quite confusing!
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Sorry...
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Hm this is tricky, If I were you I would stick to reading the comments or try once you have access to a pc or laptop...
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if you are working from your PC or laptop this link will work I believe. It is a simple model I came across with a similar idea as you have
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I'm sure together we can think of many ways.
How about this: if we model the flow of traffic in cities given different traffic rules or different amount of participants in traffic we can see what kind of structures, rules and limits we should install. This could also help us design better cities.
How about that?
Any other ideas? -
I even found the video: https://youtu.be/eYe0QrFpQ6c?t=1m16s
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Actually, this is an application of ABM that I have seen before even presented by Wander Jager
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The other way around would also be possible :O
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This course will use economics further to explain concepts of complex systems - e.g. path dependency
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Hm I disagree with you; economics is a field in which we deal with fundamental uncertainty. I think it does not matter how much attention we pay to creating the model, it is always a simplification of reality and when we deal with (social) complex systems there are parts we can never really predict no matter how hard we try.
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I think another (not so very recent anymore) research indicated that we are in fact closer to each other than the 6 degrees. I believe they calculated that it was about 4.5 through Facebook
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Tim Menkveld replied to Bastian Moritz
I agree with you Gwynne! :)
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I think you might be misunderstanding what is meant with central control in this course - which is a bit different than what we mean by control in everyday life. In this case, central control means making every decision for every action an element of the system takes.
For example, if a government would have central control they would be able to make every...
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Tim Menkveld replied to Michelle G
The search engine also performs better once it gets to understand you - therefore search results will become better over time specifically for you! Moving to another engine will feel like they perform worse for you.. another aspect of being locked in
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Tim Menkveld replied to Daguwor K. Dennis
Hi Dugawor! All lectures have a transcript available which you would be able to copy into one file for yourself. There is no central document though.
If your internet allows, you could download low quality version of the videos.
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I think working collectively (for the same concern) is a characteristic for a complex system - as the ants interact and there is no central control.
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Tim Menkveld replied to helene raynal
I also think emergence is a prominent topic in complexity science. It will be broadly covered in the course :)
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Tim Menkveld replied to imke everts
I read the book by Mitchell and it also covers other subjects that are less covered in this course - where we will more focus on the social aspect of complex systems she focuses more on the physics aspects
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Tim Menkveld replied to Alexey Zyukov
How about planets that collide?
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Tim Menkveld replied to Bastian Moritz
Thanks for pointing this out. Fixed it now.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Co Gelderloos
The right subtitles are shown :)
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Thank you!
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Sharp eye! Thanks, I've edited it now.
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Thank you! Sorry for the technical difficulties that caused a little delay..!
The video will appear on YouTube shortly! -
Tim Menkveld made a comment
There was a little technical problem, please find the link for the hangout here:
https://plus.google.com/b/117076558754107931460/events/cllqi03k3gem3kp29c1oquf8h2s
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Maryse says that entrepreneurship is a process of creating, identifying and exploiting opportunities. This definition is broader than you provide from the Cambridge dictionary. But, this fits well with someone who starts their own business - they see an opportunity and exploit it.
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I think you do need a Google account to join in. I'm sorry if this refrains you from joining. However, you can ask your questions here - and watch the YouTube video afterwards. It will just not be live.. Does this help?
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Tim Menkveld replied to Catherine Montgomery
Indeed! Very related.
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I edited it. Should be working fine now :)
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Tim Menkveld replied to Mladen Mojić
The course will remain open indefinitely - so there is no 'hurry' there. However, because we have a case study at the end of the course, in order to receive feedback from fellow students I recommend to finish it not too late..
Have fun!
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I wonder to what extent taxation on inheritance property discourage entrepreneurship..
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I think it means the following. You are going to a party and you expect that lot's of people will be drinking quite a bit. But you only want to have a few drinks that night (your commitment)..
The chances are higher that you will stick to your commitment of a few drinks that night if you either write it down, or tell a friend about your commitment THAN if... -
Little bit unrelated, but funny story: was in a KFC in Shanghai - middle of the night. And everybody was sleeping there! Those people came from out of town and couldn't afford a place to sleep: and KFC allowed them to sleep there. How is that for social norms.
Proof: http://tinyurl.com/pnrg2yb
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I heard about it (and found it). The village is called Oudelande (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oudelande) - but couldn't find an English article about it. Turns out there is a German village that did the same thing:
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Joris Luyendijk (a correspondent in London for the Guardian) wrote columns and combined these in a book. It's about a lot of things that are going on in banks in London.
I can't seem to find an English translation of the book (it's originally written in Dutch), unfortunately (it's called 'This cannot be true', or in Dutch 'Dit kan niet waar zijn'). A lot of...
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Woops! I've edited it in the text now as well.
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I look at laws not as a sort of equilibrium but as as a framework. It is also shaped by cultures, ethics, institutions etc.
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Tim Menkveld replied to HUI Shen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-qBShKK9l4&feature=youtu.be&t=37m21s
This video answers your question :) -
Do you want to elaborate on your statement?
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Tim Menkveld replied to SHAFIE LEOW
This week is especially challenging. We understand if students need more time next week, and later, to catch up. Therefore, we'll remain active in the comment sections :)
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Wow, this is great! I'll make sure we will use this in the course!
Make sure to press 'setup' and 'go' if you want to run the simulation. -
They are both software programs that allow you to create Agent Based Models
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Next video..
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Hi Bert, I'm not sure what the original publication and I don't have access to the (source code of the) model. Unfortunately. What I can recommend is this: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Ants
That is a similar netlogo model, if you open it in Netlogo you can have access to the code. Good luck!More info on installing NetLogo...
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That's true! I like that book a lot. Also I can recommend 'Predictable Irrational' by Dan Ariely.
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I agree that luck can be an important factor. Too bad it's hard to control one's luck...
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There are 2 wrong answers. They are both about network theories that are not really about stability but about the distribution of nodes in a network. Have a look at this lecture, https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/complexity-and-uncertainty/3/steps/40660 ,that might help..
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The idea is that you create an artificial population of agents, and you let them interact. In the next steps you will explore this concept more.
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I always interpreted using ethics as a way of dealing with uncertainty in a much simpler way. For example, I'm not afraid someone will hit me in my face when I walk on the street because we have a common understanding that doing that is bad.
(Even though you can say "we don't do that because it's against the law", I think we don't do many things because we...
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Tim Menkveld replied to Jon Webber
Thanks! It's easy for you to change, but it is difficult for the whole society to change. Most companies and governments use Windows, the software and files are then compatible with each other when they are exchanged (although most apple computers have microsoft Word, to make it more compatible). Society is locked-in using windows, it's easy for you to adapt...
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Cool example!
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Tim Menkveld replied to Stephen Starbuck
You're right. Think it has to do with the filling..
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Also, another reason came to mind: developers of apps often choose the platform with most users (not only iPhone, but also Android). A platform needs both developers and users. More users will mean more apps and more apps will mean more users. For a new platform to emerge is very difficult because of this!
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Hm, the iPhone can be a lock-in because once someone chose a smartphone, many stick to that smartphone. Changing to another smartphone might be difficult as one has to learn how to operate on it, similar to learning a different keyboard layout.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Chuks Onyezobi
I think the alternative is no circumcision?
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Tim Menkveld replied to Ian Pitchford
Thank you so much! :) Check out our programs: http://www.rug.nl/masters/in-english
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Tim Menkveld replied to Barry Mildner
This could be an interesting discussion on semantics. Looking for the definition of buffer it also means shield in English - so I am afraid I miss the point.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/buffer?s=t
In fact, I think the definition of buffer exactly fits the use of the Delta works. The dunes could be seen as redundant in some cases I guess. -
Tim Menkveld replied to Sophie Goodrick
Thanks for pointing that out, fixed the problem.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Phil Dockerill
Thanks for pointing that out, fixed the problem.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Bert Snoek
That's true unfortunately..
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Tim Menkveld replied to Bert Snoek
Hi Bert,
Interesting thoughts!You don't have to finish every week's subjects in that week, the course will remain open even after the six weeks, so its not a problem if you fall behind.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Sophie Goodrick
It certainly can be incorporated!
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Tim Menkveld replied to Frédéric Bouchet
Great video!
Ps. self-organization, relevant to this video as well, will return later in the course -
Tim Menkveld replied to Moni Stürmer
It's supposed to be Goldstein. Sorry for the confusion.
Link to his work: http://www.anecdote.com/pdfs/papers/EmergenceAsAConsutructIssue1_1_3.pdf
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If you get this message: "You've hit your limit of 5 free articles this month. You have a couple of options: "
Copy the link, press ctrl+shift+n (a new tab will open in 'incognito mode') and paste the link in there. -
Tim Menkveld replied to Aiden Kasakya Muganzi
Heterogeneous means diverse, or different, in characteristics or content. I don't believe heterogenous interaction is part of the definition; rather, heterogenous agents that interact. interaction often involves the exchange of information or knowledge.
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Karen, I can read it without subcription..
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Tim Menkveld replied to Robert Kofi Yankey
I would say that Risk is about knowns rather than unknowns.
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There will also be lectures on spontaneous order in societies in Week 4 :)
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Yes, indeed! I'm quite fascinated by scenario planning, and find a lot common points with this course!
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"Final characteristic that's often found in complex system is evolutionarily dynamics. Evolutionary dynamics. Networks, complex systems, evolve over time. They adapt to changing circumstances by eliminating those that have characteristics that make them less fit for the changed circumstances.
Evolution is a process without central direction. It's a process...
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I think prof Hoogduin implies that a perfect communist system should have all, perfect, knowledge about the needs of every individual over a longer time - and plan accordingly. It implies full central control. But, this is obviously impossible. Therefore, in reality the communist economies of the Soviet Union and North Korea are in fact complex systems.
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Tim Menkveld replied to Orion Spur
Interesting question. I think its difficult because the algorithms that define the actions and reactions of the autonomous machines are defined by humans. So, this could mean that there is some sort of central control. However, could it be completely predictable how the battle results? Or even, how the entire battle would be, every detail of it?
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Tim Menkveld replied to Seamus Cullen
There are 3 complicated systems in that question and 8 complex systems. I'm sure that is not the mistake that you made, so let me try to further explain the distinction. There are three examples that are complicated, in the sense that one action always leads to the same reaction ( A-->B ). Whereas the other examples, action A does not always lead to reaction...
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Tim Menkveld made a comment
I came across this article from Harvard Business Review. Considers how Shell deals with uncertainty: https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures
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The science of planning a city and the science of politics/governments
