How has Mexico’s climate changed?

Since the Industrial Revolution, the global climate has been warming, and on average, the Earth is around 1 degree warmer than it was. However, the warming is not evenly spread, with some regions experiencing more warming than others. Having said that, so far, Mexico has roughly tracked the world average with most of this warming happening in just the past 20 years.

This graph shows how temperatures have changed since 1901, with the blue bars below the line showing cooler temperatures and the red bars above the line showing warmer temperatures. You can see how much the overall temperature has increased in just over 100 years!

© Ed Hawkins (2023) CC BY-SA 4.0. (Click to expand).

These temperatures have been rising faster during the winter and spring, with relatively small changes in the summer and autumn. Therefore, the higher temperature changes have occurred in times that match with dry seasons for much of the country. The temperatures are also not rising equally across the country, with the region around the Gulf of Baja California experiencing the fastest warming, and the least warming occurring in the mid and mid-west regions.

Total annual precipitation levels have not shown a clear direction of change. However, the timing of rainfall has changed over time. In particular, the wet seasons seem to be getting wetter and the dry seasons are getting drier. Similarly, when looking at precipitation levels across the whole country, total amounts of water have not shown any big changes, but the location of rainfall has changed.

The mountainous regions across the country, particularly in the west, have shown a large decrease in precipitation. For example, mountainous areas in the Gulf of Baja California have seen as much as 20% less rainfall in recent decades. However, the central highlands and the Yucatan Peninsula have seen increases in precipitation.

The timing and location of changing precipitation and temperature (which impacts evaporation rates) has led to a combined impact on water availability across the country. This has meant that the country has experienced more extreme events, with drier seasons and locations getting drier and wetter seasons and locations getting wetter.

These changes have had direct impacts on the people and biodiversity of Mexico.