Scenario: GIS data vs manual data estimates

Consider the case that is summed up in this slide:

This map illustrates the use of technology versus a manual way of estimating the number of children in Afghanistan that are under the age of 5. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) estimates that the population of children under the age of 5 in Afghanistan was about 5.9 million, whereas the polio campaign states that the target number of children under the age of 5 in Afghanistan were 10.2 million.

In your opinion, what might have resulted in the divergence in the numbers? Why might the geographical information system numbers be lower?

To help you refine your response consider the following questions:

• What is GIS modeling missing that the administrative data has?
• What’s the importance of the knowledge that the administrative system has?
• Why do you think that the administrative numbers might be higher?
• Could it be as a result of the incentives that are being given?

Then, think about your own context. Consider the question:

Could you give examples in your own environment how this might work? What would you do with this information if you were a planner?

Please take a moment to share your thoughts in the discussion.