What is the SIR Model?
In this step we’ll explain what the SIR model is and how it works. Later we’ll give the formal mathematical details of the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model, but the general ideas …
Course: COVID-19: Pandemics, Modelling, and Policy
Testing to Reduce the COVID-19 Infection Rate
Reducing the infection rate to less than 1 must be at the heart of any policy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Any policy aimed at reducing the infection rate requires …
Face Mask Policies
Wearing face masks has risen up the political agenda in many countries, with considerable disagreement on how to interpret the evidence. On 28th April 2020 Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of …
Agent Based Modelling
Agent Based Modelling in one the major tools of complex systems science. In this case the agents are considered to be people. As you will see the epidemic and its …
Do Face Masks Protect?
Should members of the public wear face masks? Face masks could be one possible way to reduce the reproduction number R but whether or not the general public should wear …
The Vital Statistics of COVID-19
COVID-19 is a new pathogen and almost everything known about it has been discovered since December 2019. Great uncertainty remains about its characteristics. What is SARS-CoV-2? What is COVID-19? Severe …
Macro-, Meso- and Micro-Modelling
A system is a set of interacting elements where the behaviour of the whole emerges from the interactions of the individuals. The individuals in an epidemic system exist at the …
Conclusion to Week 1
During this week you have considered how a pandemic can modelled to help inform those making policy. We began with the kind of questions policy makers and citizens have about …
Models
A model is a description of a system or process to show how it works. Physical models are used in many ways. Architects use them to enable clients to visualise …
Modelling Real World Complex Systems
Complex systems are large, heterogeneous and unpredictable. One of the best tools we have is large scale computer simulation. An early large scale simulation system was developed in the nineteen …
The Imperial College Report
(Control-click here for an enlarged image in an new window) The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team published Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression …
Modelling Test-and-Isolate
The WHO’s policy for defeating the pandemic is to test-and-isolate. This step investigates how this might work. Based on a simple model our tentative conclusion is that this is an …
Complex Systems Science
A system is a collection of entities or parts that interact with each other. The behaviour of the whole system emerges from the interactions between its parts. A system has …
Hands-on Modelling SIR Behaviours
In this step you will use an interactive computer program to model the behaviour of the SIR curves for different combinations of population sizes, infection rates, recovery rates, vaccination rates, …
Conclusion to our COVID-19 course
Review of Week 1 Step 1.3 collected some of the vital statistics of COVID-19 while Step 1.4 discussed transmission. Step 1.5 discussed crises in healthcare systems. The Kermac-McKendrick SIR model …